The Candidates’ Market Report
It’s been quite a week in the polling and betting markets, especially with regards to the presidential race; nearly all the action is being shaped by COVID-19 and the political response. President Trump has taken a heavy hit according to the latest Rasmussen surveys, but other pollsters are not so negative. The president’s handling of the Coronavirus crisis gave him a clear bump across the board last week that is still in play, although CNN predicts this boost has reached a plateau.
Heading into the Easter weekend, if the daily death totals start to go down (which they have been doing both in the U.S. and worldwide over the last three days), it will be difficult for the media to put a negative spin on the government’s actions to date. We can expect the next week’s approval average to mirror deaths inversely.
The Democrats are facing a major crisis. Having postponed the National Convention until August, almost all primaries have been kicked into the long grass, and questions are being asked about the legitimacy of their eventual nominee. It seems almost certain that former VP Joe Biden will receive the crown, but what impact will this anointment have on the Bernie Bros who may feel they have been robbed of their candidate yet again?
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 44% ( – 4% )
- Congress – 24% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/7
- Andrew Cuomo – 14/1
- Bernie Sanders – 16/1
- Hillary Clinton – 16/1
- Michelle Obama – 40/1
There has been no change whatsoever in the leaderboard to win the Democratic Party nomination. Joe Biden retains a firm lead while Andrew Cuomo and Bernie Sanders remain as 14/1 and 16/1 longshots respectively. The big news is that the Democratic National Convention has been postponed by at least a month. Added to this is the lack of actual primaries taking place. In 2017, we heard endless accusations of illegitimacy flung at President Trump; who will these calls be aimed at in November if Biden is simply handed the nomination?
On the subject of “assuming the position,” much chatter has been devoted to whom Joe Biden will pick as his running mate. Once again, Liberty Nation cuts through the noise and presents the odds.
Biden’s Running Mate
- Kamala Harris – 15/8
- Amy Klobuchar – 3/1
- Stacey Abrams – 4/1
The Democratic National Convention has been postponed and is expected to begin on August 17.
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
April 7 – Wisconsin
Polls predict that Joe Biden will gain more than 60% of the vote and over 50 of the 84 pledged delegates available.
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Joe Biden – 5/4
- Andrew Cuomo – 22/1
- Mike Pence – 33/1
- Bernie Sanders – 33/1
- Hillary Clinton – 50/1
- Nikki Haley – 100/1
- Michelle Obama – 100/1
Cash bettors appear to be flocking to the outside bets. Instead of laying down more money on who they think will be the next president (Trump being the favorite), speculators are looking to make a play on the mechanics of the 2020 election. Bettors can now lay money down on who they think will win the popular vote (odds currently favor the Democrat candidate), the winning party (odds currently favor the Republican Party), and even a state by state play on who wins where.
This is a signal. Once betting stops on one particular area (in this case the Democratic nominee and the next president), it shows that bettors have made up their minds and are sticking with their choices. While these odds will certainly change as we get closer and closer to November, for now, the betting public have decided the job is done.
- Trump NOT to be re-elected – 4/5
- Nikki Haley to be Vice President Nominee – 5/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
For home study students and young people, Liberty Nation recommends…
Govt. Response to Coronavirus
High School: White House Acts on Coronavirus
Middle School: Trump Takes Action on Coronavirus
Elementary School: Trump Versus Coronavirus
The Primary Process
High School: The Primary and Caucus Process Explained
Middle School: The Primary and Caucus Process
Elementary School: Primaries and Caucuses: How Do They Work?