The Candidates’ Market Report
Both Donald Trump and Congress have shown steadiness in their approval ratings this week. While neither party can be overly proud of a 45% level, the fact that this is one of the most tumultuous weeks in politics this year tells us that Trump’s voter base is not deterred by the impending impeachment debacle. In fact, polling in key states suggests that The Donald’s support may even be firming up.
In a survey by The Texas Tribune, hypothetical match-ups were made between the president and each of the major contenders: The closest race was with Bernie Sanders, who lost out to the incumbent by a full five points. Other surveys also suggest that Democratic candidates have a tough hill to climb if they want to win the White House.
In the latest NYT/Sienna poll for all-important Florida, Trump beats Warren by four points but loses to Biden by two.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 45% ( no change )
- Congress – 22% ( no change)
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 6/4
- Joe Biden – 3/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 5/1
- Bernie Sanders – 11/2
- Andrew Yang – 11/1
- Hillary Clinton – 12/1
- Kamala Harris – 40/1
The top four candidates have each improved their positions by between half a point and a point and a half this week, and when everything changes, the reality is that nothing changes; it’s still the top candidates battling for pole position. Mayor Pete Buttigieg has managed to secure his top-tier status by muscling Bernie out of the number three spot but, as a consequence, has become a target for those on the outside odds. Julian Castro called Buttigieg out for not only his issues with black voters but also his inability to understand Latino voters.
Hillary Clinton again spikes in the odds, fueling even more speculation that she might yet take the gauntlet. Kamala Harris drops a solid 20 points, putting her firmly out of the limelight. One of the last candidates to take such a major drop was Beto O’Rourke, who shortly after closed shop on his campaign.
Most notable is that no one seems to have benefitted from O’Rourke’s departure. What this signifies is that despite the occasional positive polling in his own state, there was never very much in the way of real support for him across the nation. Despite all the press coverage, despite the national stage, despite the media hype, voters just weren’t that into him. What could this tell us about other candidates and their precarious positions?
- Donald Trump – 6/5
- Elizabeth Warren – 7/2
- Joe Biden – 6/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 17/2
- Bernie Sanders – 9/1
- Andrew Yang – 22/1
- Hillary Clinton – 30/1
- Kamala Harris – 40/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
- Mitt Romney – 90/1
- Cory Booker – 100/1
Donald Trump’s odds of staying in the White House have not risen a single point, yet for some allegedly inexplicable reason, neither have Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden’s chances of replacing him. While Sanders and Buttigieg have upticked a fraction, Warren herself actually lost three-quarters of a point; when you’re in the second spot, that’s a big hit to take.
This lack of movement again shows us that the cross-country support so hyped by the media is little but a mirage. As the odds stand now, the nation is expecting a Donald Trump victory regardless of which Democrat wins the nomination. The only question is whether he wins more Electoral College votes than last time.
The Democrats had one advantage: Trump voters might not turn out because of high confidence in his re-election; with the impeachment push, they have squandered their only hope of taking back the White House.
- Impeachment – 1/4
- Resignation – 1/12
- Melania to run for president against Donald – 200/1
- The UN to relocate their headquarters outside of the US during Trumps Presidency – 4/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.