It is possible to envision two entirely different narratives which might unfold regarding the future of Donald J. Trump as voters cast their midterm ballots, with Election Night 2022 now less than one month away. The first could vault him to a restored presidency. The second could well signal the beginning of the end for the man who shook Washington to its core.
It all comes down to the fate of five controversial GOP Senate candidates in pivotal swing-state races who almost certainly would not have won their primaries absent Trump’s explicit endorsement, and have engendered particular controversy. The bottom line is that, absent a shocking upset elsewhere, Republicans must win three of the five races in order to seize control of the upper chamber. If the GOP does gain the majority, Trump will claim credit and significantly strengthen his case for 2024. If it doesn't take control, rest assured Trump will be blamed - and his stock will tumble. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hinted as much when he spoke of the “quality of candidates” in the Senate, essentially code language for what he sees as their unelectability.
In all five states, conventional conservatives had hoped for inoffensive buttoned-down establishment-style nominees who would not distract from a singular focus on Democrats’ failures. But they had to settle for Trump-centric insurgents who, as always, are serving as lightning rods (“election deniers”) for the Trump-obsessed media. The central question is whether voters put off by Trump-focused candidates will be outweighed by Trump enthusiasts who might not have turned out to vote for an establishment figure.
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Midterm Mania
Foremost among the quintet of critical battlegrounds is Georgia, where mainstream conservative Brian Kemp is taking great advantage of the changing political climate, leading big in the polls over high-profile Democrat Stacey Abrams in his bid for a second term as governor. But that promise has not translated to the Senate race, where the ever-controversial Herschel Walker has trailed Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock from the moment he secured the GOP nomination. A bevy of controversies unearthed by left-wing media have knocked Walker back on his heels, with his hopes resting on his legendary status in the Peach State, the appearance of Trump-style scandal mongering by elite media, and a tribal political climate in which each side’s voters appear to care little about anything except party affiliation.
Celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, running to hold the seat of retiring Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, has also been behind from the get-go, and despite seeming to close the gap in recent days, has trailed in every poll conducted since his nomination. Oz is vulnerable to attack on at least three fronts. As a longtime resident of neighboring New Jersey, he has been labeled a carpetbagger. His “crudité” remark created the image of an out-of-touch elitist. And questions of split loyalty linger, considering his dual citizenship with his native Turkey. He also holds the distinction of being perhaps the only candidate endorsed by Trump to be roundly booed upon being introduced by the Donald himself at a rally. And it’s not hard to understand why. In 2016, Dr. Oz had been highly critical of the Donald as a candidate - and Trump supporters have famously long memories.
In Ohio, newfound Trump devotee and author JD Vance is leading his Democratic opponent, Rep. Tim Ryan, in a bid to hold the seat of retiring GOP establishment Sen. Rob Portman. But in a state Trump twice captured by eight points, Vance’s lead is well within the margin of error. In Arizona, Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly has held a lead from the start against venture capitalist and Trump endorsee Blake Masters. And in New Hampshire, another state once thought ripe for a Republican flip, Trump-approved Army General Don Bolduc is behind, outside the margin of error, in the race to defeat incumbent Maggie Hassan, another Democrat once thought vulnerable.
At an absolute minimum, the results in these races will determine the residual length of Trump’s coattails. Unique historical figures such as Trump, Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan can not truly replicate themselves. The coattails were short for Obama, who despite his own electoral success, was unable to translate his personal triumphs to his party. Even as a former president, Trump is similarly inimitable. It is likely that some, perhaps most, of Trump’s endorsees will win, and others will lose. But it’s those five states in particular where the perceived power of Trump will wax or wane, where the Republicans’ Senate fate will be determined, and where Trump’s likely quest for four more years will rise or fall.
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