Editor’s Note: With so much heat rather than light in the media world today, Liberty Nation presents the following series on the crucial midterm elections that will be taking place. These elections will likely determine the course of the Trump presidency and as such should be looked at with in-depth analysis. Thus, each week LN author Graham Noble will be giving our readers a state-by-state look at the upcoming elections. This week, he covers House and Senate Races in Oklahoma and Oregon.
The state of Oklahoma has chosen the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1952, with just one exception; in 1964, Oklahomans chose incumbent president Lyndon B. Johnson over Republican challenger Barry Goldwater. In 2016, Hillary Clinton proved extremely unpopular in the state, claiming less than 29% of the votes while President Donald Trump took 65.3%. Oregon had voted Republican in most presidential elections until the late 1980s but has been a solid blue state since then. Hillary Clinton won the state handily in 2016 by a margin of 50.1% to 39.1%. Interestingly, her share of the vote was the smallest of any Democrat in the past five presidential elections and Trump’s share was the smallest of any Republican over the same period.
None of the four Senators representing these two states will face re-election contests in this year’s midterm elections. Republican James Inhofe of Oklahoma and Democrat Jeff Merkley of Oregon both finish their current six-year terms in January 2021. Their respective Senate colleagues, Republican James Lankford and Democrat Ron Wyden, will serve until 2023.
The four congressional district seats in Oklahoma will remain in Republican hands this November. The 1st district is currently open, as Jim Bridenstine, who held the seat, has taken over as NASA Administrator. Five Republicans and five Democrats are competing for the seat and both parties hold their primary in June, with the election on November 6. The 5th district, which includes Oklahoma City, may be the most vulnerable seat but second-term Representative Steve Russell was re-elected in 2016 by a comfortable margin and the district voted for Trump by more than 13 percentage points.
Four Democrats and one Republican represent Oregon’s congressional districts. None of these five seats are likely to flip in this year’s elections. Thus, Midterm Election Watch predicts that nothing will change, for either party, in the two states covered this week. There may be a new face or two but neither party will lose a seat.
Join us next week as our series focuses on House and Senate Races in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.