Editor’s Note: With so much heat rather than light in the media world today, Liberty Nation presents the following series on the crucial midterm elections that will be taking place. These elections will likely determine the course of the Trump presidency and as such should be looked at with in-depth analysis. Thus, each week LN author Graham Noble will be giving our readers a state-by-state look at the upcoming elections. This week, he covers House and Senate Races in New Mexico and New York.
New Mexico is a real swing-state, with the southern half being almost entirely Republican and the northern half almost entirely Democrat. Commanding only five electoral votes, however, the state gets far less attention than those states with the power to swing presidential elections, such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. New Mexico voted Republican in the 2004 presidential election but has otherwise chosen a Democrat since 1992. In 2000, Al Gore carried New Mexico by just 0.1%. The state chose Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a margin of 48.3% to 40%. New York state hasn’t voted for a Republican in a general election since 1984 and, in the last five elections, no Republican has gained even 40% of the state’s votes. President Donald Trump received 36.3% in this, his home state, while Hillary Clinton got 58.4%, which was, in fact, a poor showing for a Democratic candidate.
New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich will be running for re-election in November. Fellow Democrat Tom Udall, who also represents the state, will finish his current term in 2021. New Mexico has three congressional districts, represented by Democrats Ben Luján and Michelle Lujan Grisham and Republican Steve Pearce. Both Pearce and Lujan Grisham are leaving Congress to run for Governor of New Mexico. There is little chance that either of their seats will flip in this year’s midterm elections.
In the U.S. Senate, the state of New York is represented by Charles Schumer, who leads the Senate Democrats, and Kirsten Gillibrand. Schumer will finish his current term in 2023 and Gillibrand will be fighting for re-election this November. A popular figure on the progressive side of the Democratic Party, Gillibrand is practically assured re-election.
New York’s 27 congressional districts are represented by nine Republicans and 17 Democrats. The seat for the 25th district is open following the recent death of Representative Louise Slaughter. A bipartisan group of voters in this district is currently suing Governor Andrew Cuomo for his failure to declare a special election to fill the seat until November. Several districts in the state are considered less than safe for their respective parties and New York may be one of the toughest states in which to predict midterm results.
If the Democrats’ so-called ‘blue wave’ is to become reality, then New York, along with its neighbor New Jersey, will be an important factor. If there was a race to watch in this state, it might be the 22nd district where incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney fights her first re-election battle against a strong challenge from Democrat Anthony Brindisi. Another possible flip in New York – at least, as Democrats see it – is the 19th district, represented by Republican John Faso. Democrats are fighting hard to unseat the first-term congressman and are relying heavily on attacking his support of Second Amendment rights. That tactic may not be a winner, of course; going after gun rights tends not to be popular platform outside of major urban areas.
Republican Chris Collins appears to be under siege in the 27th district but Democrats are not entirely unified over their candidate, Nate McMurray. Some leading congressional Democrats, along with Andrew Cuomo himself, were hoping to replace McMurray with Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul but the latter has declined to run for Congress.
Midterm Election Watch is going out on a limb to predict that no New York districts will flip in November, but Democrats will hold on to the currently vacant 25th district.
Join us next week as our series focuses on House and Senate Races in North Carolina, North Dakota and Ohio.