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Editor’s Note: With so much heat rather than light in the media world today, Liberty Nation presents the following series on the crucial midterm elections that will be taking place. These elections will likely determine the course of the Trump presidency and as such should be looked at with in-depth analysis. Thus, each week LN author Graham Noble will be giving our readers a state-by-state look at the upcoming elections. This week, he covers House and Senate Races in Missouri, Montana, and Nebraska.
In the 22 presidential elections since 1932, the state of Missouri has voted Democrat eleven times and Republican eleven times. The state hasn’t chosen a Democrat since 1996 and Trump scored the largest Republican victory during that period with a commanding 56.8% to 38.1% margin. Montana has gone Democrat in a presidential election only twice since 1952. Claiming 56.2% of Montana’s votes, President Donald Trump scored the largest victory in the state since 2004, when President George W. Bush claimed more than 59%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 35.8% of the votes in Montana; the smallest percentage gained by any candidate since 2000.
Incumbent President Lyndon B. Johnson was the only Democrat to carry the state of Nebraska since 1936. In 2016, Trump claimed 58.8% of the state’s votes – a modest percentage by Republican standards. Clinton claimed just 33.7%.
Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill will be running for re-election in the November midterms and her seat is by no means safe in a state that appears to be turning deep red. Recently under fire for a high-dollar Hollywood fundraising event with former President Barack Obama, McCaskill will likely find herself running against Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley. A recent poll cited by the St. Louis Post Dispatch gave her just a two-point lead over Hawley and most election analysts consider the race a toss-up. The state’s other Senator, Republican Roy Blunt, will be running for re-election in 2022.
Missouri has eight congressional districts and all but two are represented by Republicans. Not one of these seats appears to be in any doubt. The House contingent of the state’s congressional delegation will not change this year.
Like Missouri, Montana has one Democratic Senator and one Republican Senator. Also like Missouri, the Democrat is up for re-election in November. John Tester is viewed as one of most vulnerable of all Democratic Senators running this year. Republican Senator Steve Daines faces a re-election race in 2020. Touting himself as a moderate who has backed some of President Trump’s agenda – something the Republican Party is pushing back on – Tester’s re-election battle has run into an additional speed bump. The Green Party intends to field a candidate in the race for his Senate seat and the Democratic Party has filed a lawsuit to stop them. In Montana, a Green candidate would be certain to split the Democratic vote.
According to a report in The Hill, Tester practically owes his two previous election victories to Libertarian candidates peeling votes away from his opponent. If Republicans can orchestrate a strong turnout in November, they are likely to capture the seat.
Montana has one at-large Representative, being one of the few states to have just one congressional district. Most famous for physically attacking a reporter in 2017, Greg Gianforte is not popular with conservatives. Democrats are also lining up to unseat the Republican. Voters in the state elected Gianforte by a margin of more than 15% in a special election in 2017. It is a race to watch in November.
Nebraska is represented in the U.S. Senate by two Republicans; Deb Fischer and Ben Sasse. Sasse will be running for re-election in 2020 but Fischer’s seat will be contested in November. This is a safe seat for Republicans and Fischer will be returning to the Senate.
With three congressional districts, Nebraska is represented in the House by three Republicans. The 2nd district, Represented by Don Bacon, is potentially vulnerable. Bacon has held the seat since 2017 and his district voted for Trump by a margin of just 2.2%. This district is made up mostly of Omaha and its suburbs. Nebraska is one of the states that could bear the brunt of increased tariffs imposed on U.S. agricultural products by the Chinese, although how much effect that will have before November is not clear, at this point.
Midterm Election Watch predicts Republicans will pick one Senate seat in Missouri and one in Montana but will lose Montana’s at-large district and will lose another House seat in Nebraska.
Join us next week as our series focuses on House and Senate Races in Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Jersey.