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Editor’s Note: With so much heat rather than light in the media world today, Liberty Nation presents the following series on the crucial midterm elections that will be taking place. These elections will likely determine the course of the Trump presidency and as such should be looked at with in-depth analysis. Thus, each week LN author Graham Noble will be giving our readers a state-by-state look at the upcoming elections. This week, he covers House and Senate Races in Iowa, Kansas, and Kentucky.
In general elections, the state of Iowa has voted Republican only twice since 1988. Iowans voted for George W. Bush in 2004 and for Donald Trump in 2016. Trump’s 51.2% of the Iowa vote was the largest of any Republican in the past five elections. Hillary Clinton’s 41.7% was the smallest share of the vote gained by any Democrat in those same five elections. Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a general election since 1964 and, in 2016, Trump scored a 56.7% to 36.1% victory. In Kentucky, Trump’s 62.5% share of the vote gave him a convincing win over Clinton, who received just 32.7%
Neither of Iowa’s two Republican Senators will run for re-election in the November midterms. Chuck Grassley’s term runs until January 2023 and Joni Ernst will finish her current term in 2021. Iowa has four congressional districts, three of which are represented by Republicans and one by a Democrat. Two of the Republican districts are considered somewhat competitive in the midterms. David Young’s 3rd district and Rod Blum’s 1st district, which Ballotpedia classes a ‘battleground’ district. Democrat David Loebsack of the 2nd district and Republican Steve King of the 4th district are expected to face fairly easy races, although the 2nd district did vote for Trump in 2016.
Two Republicans represent the state of Kansas in the United States Senate. Neither of the two, Pat Roberts and Jerry Moran, will be up for re-election in November. They will face re-election in 2020 and 2022, respectively. Kansas has four congressional districts, all represented by Republicans. The 2nd district, which includes Topeka, is seen as potentially competitive. It is currently represented by Lynn Jenkins, who is not seeking re-election.
The Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, represents the state of Kentucky in the Senate, along with fellow Republican Rand Paul. McConnell’s current term ends in January 2021 and Paul’s in January 2023. The state has six congressional districts – all but one represented by Republicans. Kentucky’s 6th district, represented by Andy Barr, is seen as one race to watch, although Barr won re-election in 2016 with a margin of more than 22% and the district went for Trump by more than 15%.
Midterm Election Watch predicts the Democrats will pick up one House seat in Iowa, with no other changes in the three states covered this week.
Join us next week as our series focuses on House and Senate Races in Louisiana, Maine and Maryland.