Making New Year’s predictions about the national security future of the United States in 2022 is a scary undertaking, because of dangerous flashpoints in the world and the Biden administration’s penchant for international blunders. The Russians, Chinese, Iranians, and North Koreans are likely to persist in varying degrees of unsettling geopolitical behaviors. How will Joe Biden’s team handle them?
Russia Full of Bluster
Vladimir Putin (Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)
Despite Russia’s maneuvers on its border with former Soviet satellites, there is little likelihood of a full-blown troop invasion of Ukraine or the Baltic states. As nearly 90,000 combat troops and equipment hugged the boundary of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin got his desired attention from the Biden administration and NATO. Loren Thompson, senior contributor for Forbes, explained, “Moscow’s military moves to date seem more calculated to influence the behavior of the Ukrainian government than actually occupy the country.” An invasion would bring the sanctions promised by the United States as well as consolidate Europe, which would be convinced Russia was up to its “old habits of being a violent and expansive polity with a wish to move its borders westward.” Reuters has reported that the Kremlin is redeployng 10,000 troops from Ukraine’s border back to permanent bases. Furthermore, the latest from The Wall Street Journal is that the “U.S. and Russian officials would meet in January in Geneva.” So, for now, it seems Putin will posture, puff, and threaten — but stop short of invading anywhere.
China a Continuing, Real Threat
(Photo by Ceng Shou Yi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
For the United States primarily and its allies generally, China will be a thorny issue in 2022 and, if not checked, for years to come. Unlike Russia, which has regional aspirations, China’s worldview sees an ascendance to military and economic prominence at the expense of the United States. For the Biden national security team, the problem is geographically immense as Beijing spreads its hegemonic tentacles around the world. Militarily, the great power struggle in 2022 with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will be about the independence of the Taipei government.
In addition to maintaining a naval presence in the South China Sea to discourage the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from attacking and occupying Taiwan, Washington must stem the tide of the PRC’s economic and political influence in Latin America and across Africa. Liberty Nation, in a report on the advancing Chinese influence in countries like Nicaragua, warned of the Red Dragon’s expanding presence in the Pacific, the Arctic, and now Central America. Those warnings were echoed by the Congressional Research Service (CRS): “Beijing’s diplomatic overtures in LAC [Latin America] underpin China’s economic activities and help institutionalize China’s engagement in the region and garner support in international fora.” Beijing’s financial outreach to influence developing nations and its bellicose moves toward Taiwan will intensify in the next year. Will the Biden administration begin in earnest to blunt the PRC’s global metastasis?
Iranians Will Put Biden Right Where They Want Him
Iran will continue to be a thorn in the side and believes it has the upper hand with the Biden administration. In his article for Foreign Policy, Sina Toossi referenced former senior diplomat Dennis Ross, who blamed a “’loss of Iranian fear’ for Iran’s expanding nuclear program.” Toossi explained Ross’ perspective, saying, “He argues diplomacy can only succeed if this fear is restored and the Biden administration applies ‘pressure far more effectively.'” Ross is wrong, according to Toossi: “at this stage, a U.S. gesture of goodwill, in the form of freeing frozen Iranian assets abroad for the purchase of humanitarian goods, can help break down the wall of distrust between the two sides … ” The problem with this Pollyanna view of Iran is that there is no historical antecedent for such thinking. Nonetheless, the Biden administration will probably head down Toossi’s recommended path in the coming year and get what everyone else gets with an overture of friendship: nothing. Remember Obama’s pallets of cash? They only fed the coffers of Iran’s global terrorism operations.
No Change in US-North Korea Standoff
In the coming year, the U.S. relationship with North Korea will likely see no appreciable worthwhile movement. However, through the efforts of South Korea, the nearly seven-decades-old Korean War armistice signed on July 27, 1953, may be close to officially ending. German news source Deutsche Welle asked: “Is South Korea close to officially ending the Korean War?” There is optimism because South Korean President Moon Jae-in has brokered an initiative involving the United States, China, and North Korea to agree “in principle on declaring a formal end to the Korean War.”
Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un’s government will continue to test intermediate- and long-range missiles, with Biden administration diplomacy’s likely failure to generate any progress. Rather, a more effective focus would be on pressuring Beijing to rein in its volatile ally. Year 2022 will probably see a rise in the influence of Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, since her promotion to membership in the State Affairs Commission, the top ruling body in North Korea. The Biden national security team would do well to pay attention to her ascendancy.
Next year promises to bring hostile wrangles and geopolitical challenges, such as diplomatic squabbles with friends like the UAE and Saudi Arabia and enemies like Yemeni Houthi militias. But the general playing field will remain pretty much the same. Will the Biden administration adopt a fresh strategic worldview and eschew the current “Whac-A-Mole” approach to U.S. national security policy? Answer: Probably not.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
~ Read more from Dave Patterson.
