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A slate of midterm primaries yesterday, August 11, exposed a number of truisms, but also fault lines, in the apparently inexorable progressive march to reshape the Democratic Party. While plenty of races went to the insurgent socialist wing, not everything was plain sailing, with the Democratic Socialist candidate for the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, Francesca Hong, falling at the last hurdle. The results hint at more than just a question of enthusiasm.
Talk of free stuff for everyone is, naturally, quite the draw when it comes to building excitement around a candidate. And although such ephemeral promises make for good soundbites, canny voters appear unwilling - in some cases - to jettison the electability factor.
A Socialist Fail in Wisconsin
An incredibly close primary contest in Wisconsin to replace outgoing incumbent Governor Tony Evers ended with a victory for the “moderate” Democrat David Crowley, who narrowly beat progressive Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) candidate Hong. With a final tally of 39.8% to 39.4% (a difference of just several thousand votes), her loss is a rare blip that could signal an element of political sanity when it comes to winning in November.
Hong has been the focus of innumerable column inches in recent weeks, not only for her fairly typical DSA stances, but also for her comments regarding her hatred of Thanksgiving. It is these types of remarks that spook the generally moderate primary voters. They may well agree with her assessment of America’s most unique holiday, but understanding that it will alienate the all-important independent voters come November could explain why the polling got it so wrong.
As The New York Times reported just yesterday:
“In all, nine polls were fielded in the three months before the election, but only two have come out since the candidate field settled — and one of those was an internal poll for Mr. Crowley. Even that internal poll showed him well behind Ms. Hong.”
In fact, of the five major polls conducted since July, Ms. Hong’s worst result was plus 11 points over Crowley, and her average lead was almost 17 points. Heading into the primary election, she must have been extremely confident.
Electability Matters
Up and down the country, we have seen progressive insurgents win big races – and yet these have almost entirely been in deep blue areas. Wisconsin is a swing state by any definition, and while voters in places like Maryland and California can comfortably choose any candidate that takes their fancy knowing that a Democrat will win regardless, the Badger State electorate enjoys no such luxury.
Most estimates put Republicans and Democrats at roughly 30% each of the national vote share, with independents making up the remaining 40%. These crucial voters decide elections. It seems unlikely that many would have opted for a candidate who openly trashed Thanksgiving, only to later claim her adoration of cranberries in a politically expedient 180.
Democrat primary voters, it appears, determined that winning a primary contest is less important than winning the actual election. Their heart-of-heart hopes were with Hong (as the polling demonstrates), but political reality bites extremely hard. Choosing between a “moderate” Democrat and a Republican of any stripe in the governor’s mansion was perhaps not so tough a call for the party faithful.
A Democrat Problem With No Good Answers
As the Associated Press wrote, “Hong’s loss in Wisconsin may have doused the momentum, but it’s far from snuffing it out. A democratic socialist coming close to victory in a battleground state sends a clear message: There’s unignorable angst among the party’s voters.” A valid assessment, but one that ignores the political volatility unfolding within the ranks.
Blue states are safe havens for the establishment wing of the party; swing states are – as their name suggests - volatile in terms of reliability. If the core party has to fight on two fronts (GOP battles and progressive battles), maintaining any amount of electoral success long-term becomes a costly conundrum.
As progressives gain power and prominence in the safe-haven seats, the Old Guard may find itself relegated to tight matches in swing states, fighting for its very existence.
