Political unrest among NATO member wannabes is a problem. When the pro-Russia Georgian Dream party became the dominant political force in Georgia, the country’s citizens were unhappy. Recently, that dissatisfaction with a party that has grown more oppressive and less democratic brought thousands to protest in the streets of major cities. Tensions came to a head when the pro-Moscow political ruling faction decided to pull out of negotiations for European Union membership.
Georgia Could Be Another Ukraine
What the world has seen in many former Warsaw Bloc nations is disquieting. We all remember how the crisis in Ukraine began. In April 2014, seemingly with little notice by the Barack Obama administration, Russia invaded Crimea and the Donbas and Luhansk Oblasts and stayed. But the prelude to that invasion was Russia’s claim that Ukraine was hostile to ethnic Russians in those regions. Consequently, Russian military forces were obligated to enter Ukraine’s sovereign territory to protect them.
However, before the invasion, paramilitary troops in green uniforms entered Ukraine while Kremlin cyberattacks brought down essential network services. People lost confidence in local and state institutions and the ground was fertile for Moscow to take over. A similar sequence of events took place just before more than 100,000 Russian ground forces streamed into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, launching one of the largest European armed conflicts since World War II.
Now, Georgia is once again a target for Russia — but the attack is more subtle. It contrasts with August 2008, when Russian forces invaded Georgia and rampaged through the breakaway states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It wasn’t a surprise. During an International Workshop on Global Security meeting in June 2008, Georgian Vice Prime Minister Georgi Baramidze warned of the imminent Russian military action and pleaded for help:
“Finally, aggression against Georgia is a logical link in the chain, and we must not be blind to it: the murder of [Alexander] Litvinenko in the heart of London, the imposition of an economic embargo on Poland, the cyber-attack against Estonia, President [Vladimir] Putin’s speech in Munich and his statement in the NATO-Russia Council about Ukraine’s statehood, energy blackmailing of the West, and so on. The Euro-Atlantic community is capable of preventing further developments like these, but to do so it is necessary to develop a common constructive strategy.”
But NATO, the United States, and the Euro-Atlantic community didn’t. Baramidze’s prediction came true. Less than two months after his speech, Russia invaded Georgia, setting off a five-day war in which Georgia failed to reclaim the regions. The cost in Georgian lives was 170 military, 14 policemen, and 228 civilians.
However, shooting wars are messy, as Moscow’s experience in Ukraine has demonstrated. Russia has another approach. Make sure that in a Georgia democratic election, Moscow’s man is elected, no matter what. However, discontinuing the process of joining the European Union was the limit of Georgians’ accommodation to the Russia-friendly government. As Real Clear Defense explained in June, “Georgian Dream, a coalition funded by shadowy billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who earned his fortune in Russia, has taken off its democratic mask. Its move to enact a repressive, Russian-style law has sparked a large public outcry.”
A prominent Washington, DC, news source explained on Dec. 4: “Thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets for the sixth consecutive night after the ruling Georgian Dream party’s move to suspend the bid to join the European Union has reinvigorated the opposition.” Many, including the EU Parliament, were disenchanted by what they considered was a fraudulent Georgian Dream party’s re-election win in October, “neither free nor fair,” according to an EU Parliament resolution.
State Department Not Happy Over Halt to EU Talks
The US State Department issued a Nov. 30 statement on “Georgia’s Suspension of European Union Accession,” condemning the halt to EU membership talks. “By suspending Georgia’s EU accession process, Georgian Dream has rejected the opportunity for closer ties with Europe and made Georgia more vulnerable to the Kremlin,” it asserted.
If Russia is true to form, it will begin trolling cyberspace with disinformation about the illegal and disruptive Georgian Dream party opposition. The claims will escalate, calling resistance groups a danger to ethnic Russians in Georgia, the pretext Russia uses to apply military force. It was the move Russia made in Ukraine before its invasion.
President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House for the second time on Jan. 20, 2025, and he will have a geopolitical mess on his hands. When the United States is not paying attention, its adversaries waste no time causing mischief. Very soon, Georgia, the country, will be more prominently on the mind of Washington.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
