“The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming” is the imminent peril Ukraine faces daily. Moscow’s persistent mischief, rattling sabers to keep Kyiv on edge, continues unabated, and as Liberty Nation reported recently, the United States, NATO, and the European Union are getting nervous. According to Fox News correspondent Peter Aitken, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin pooh-poohed the idea that thousands of Russian combat troops on Ukraine’s border are readying for invasion. He derisively called the United States hysterical for such a notion.
Vladimir Putin
(Photo by Konstantin Zavrazhin/Getty Images)
Aitken said that Russian flack Dmitry Peskov “… criticized US news media for ‘artificially’ creating panic about an invasion after the release of satellite images on November 8 showed around 90,000 Russian troops gathered near Ukraine’s border.” Aitken went on: “‘This hysteria is being whipped up artificially,’ Peskov said on state television. ‘Those who have brought their armed forces from overseas are accusing us of unusual military activity on our own territory. That is the United States.'”
But Groucho Marx’ famous question comes to mind, “Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?”
There is little fuzz on Russia’s intent as far as Ukraine’s chief of intelligence, Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov, is concerned. Writing for Military Times, Howard Altman described the level of Ukraine’s concern as not a matter of “if” but “when” Moscow’s forces will stream across the border. Altman explained:
“Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times. Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery, and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupol, and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus Ukraine, Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times … in an exclusive interview.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
(Photo by Jim Lo Scalzo-Pool/Getty Images)
The U.S. intelligence community has a similar view of the Kremlin’s plans. A Bloomberg News dispatch by Alberto Nardelli and Jennifer Jacobs reported, “The US has shared intelligence including maps with European allies that shows a buildup of Russian troops and artillery to prepare for a rapid, large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple locations if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, according to people familiar with the conversations.” Nardelli and Jacobs revealed that the United States provided information to NATO members that underscored America’s concern about Putin’s objective and “increasingly frantic” efforts on the diplomatic front to persuade the Kremlin against invading. In addition, European diplomats have been communicating directly with the Russian president.
To get some clarity on what might be prompting Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine, Liberty Nation looked to James Farwell, an expert on information warfare and its use in hybrid attacks on adversaries. In a one-on-one interview, Farwell – author of the book Information Warfare — sees Putin’s gambit differently. Asked what he makes of Putin’s endgame in placing the infantry, armor, and artillery at Ukraine’s doorstep, Farwell pointed out:
“Since seizing Crimea, Putin has resorted to information warfare — the use of information to conduct warfare — to advance Russian interests. Although Russian actions have employed violence, Putin’s actions fall short of armed conflict. He wants to prevail without a war. All the tactics he’s employed since 2014 align with that view. The current maneuvers seem to be the latest evidence of using psychological warfare to intimidate the West into backing off active support — especially the supply of arms — to Ukraine.”
Nonetheless, if the United States, NATO allies, and EU countries do not fully appreciate that the Russian president “wants to prevail without war,” a miscalculation regarding the Kremlin’s intentions could lead to a shooting conflict. To get a better understanding of what the Russian president is up to, the U.S. Secretary of Defense told the Pentagon press corps during a recent briefing, according to Military Times:
“American officials are unsure why Russian President Vladimir Putin is building up military forces near the border with eastern Ukraine but view it as another example of troubling military moves that demand Moscow’s explanation, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday (November 17). ‘We’ll continue to call on Russia to act responsibly and be more transparent on the buildup of the forces around (and) on the border of Ukraine,’ Austin told a Pentagon news conference, adding, ‘We’re not sure exactly what Mr. Putin is up to.'”
In the back and forth between the United States and Western Europe and the Russian government, it’s apparent there is no common ground. Nor is there a signal from the West as to its response. In any event, the heated words coming from the Kremlin aren’t helpful.
According to the Associated Press, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) released a “strongly worded statement” that “scathingly criticized the US State Department of spreading ‘absolute lies’ about a purported Russian buildup near Ukraine.” The SVR claimed, “The Americans are painting a horrible picture of Russian tank armadas crushing Ukrainian cities … It’s surprising to see a speed at which a formerly respectable foreign policy agency is turning into a mouthpiece of mendacious propaganda.”
The Russians ended their public screed with a comparison between the situation in Ukraine and the conditions that led to Moscow’s invasion of Georgia in 2008. Naturally, reliving the plight of Georgia is something the United States and Europe want to avoid. Unfortunately, there is no mistaking a threat, however veiled.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
~ Read more from Dave Patterson.
