In the 1983 movie Wargames, in which a precocious teen attempts to avert thermonuclear war by rationalizing with a supercomputer, the moral lesson was that "the only winning move is not to play." With many in his own party claiming capitulation over the government shutdown, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer may be caught in a similar conundrum.
As another notable New York politico proceeds to snap at his heels as a potential challenger in 2028, the shift from left to far left for the Big Apple raises burning questions about Schumer’s future in the party he – at least nominally – controls.
Schumer and the Old Guard
It is no secret that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is involved in trying to shift the messaging on what it means to be a politician in the Democratic Party. As a fellow member of the Democratic Socialists of America, she can claim the recent Zohran Mamdani victory as both an ideological win and political portent.
It seems a significant number of New York City voters are all-in on socialist policies, and the state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984. AOC may see this as her best opportunity to topple a practically entrenched staple of her party.
And there appears to be an appetite for a primary contest. New York-based political consultant Susan Del Perico told The Hill that Schumer’s chances of surviving a primary were beyond slim:
“He’s a political animal, which means he’s smart enough to know when he’s at checkmate… At the end of the day, his political career has run its course. It’s been admirable and successful, but it’s done.”
“She beats him in a primary,” Del Perico concluded. It’s difficult to argue otherwise.
Two Strikes for Schumer
The recent federal shutdown was a disaster in political messaging, and more so for the messenger. After six weeks of complaints about Republicans refusing to open the government, seven Democrats crossed the aisle (along with one independent), and proved to the nation that it was a lack of Democrat cooperation that was holding up SNAP payments and government worker pay. Most notably, it was not the Senate minority leader who engaged in negotiations with the GOP. Rumbles in the Swamp suggest that it was Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire who reached out to come to a compromise; one might wonder what the point of being minority leader is if you are going to abdicate negotiations.
Fairly or not, Schumer takes the blame for this extended government hiatus, much like he did back in March when he backed the last funding bill. Six months ago, he was pilloried by his own team for giving in, and now he is receiving the same treatment for standing firm. When you are on a losing streak, it’s tough to start winning.
So, what is Mr. Schumer’s best play?
Back to Wargames
In terms of notoriety, pollster YouGov has AOC as the sixth most popular politician in the country. Chuck Schumer comes in 72nd. But what about numbers? The New York senator last won re-election in 2022 with roughly 3.3 million votes cast in his favor, whereas Ocasio-Cortez only needed to muster 130,000 votes to best her conservative challenger in 2024 – it’s a big difference. But consider the groundswell of votes on November 4 this year for mayor-elect Mamdani – more than one million folks in America’s largest city opted for the pro-socialist candidate; that’s support AOC’s brand of politics can likely count on.
