Is World War III upon us? Since President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS long-range missiles, the hearts of the media-chattering class have been fluttering. Prognostications range from one extreme to the other: Putin is all talk, or he’s going to launch nuclear weapons and end the world. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, a poorly defined place.
Some Believe a World War Is Already Happening
When President Biden allowed Ukraine to use the American-made Army Tactical Missiles System (ATACMS), Kyiv forces immediately attacked, with Ukraine launching eight supersonic missiles at Russian military facilities. The targets were in the Bryansk region, 235 miles southwest of Moscow. ATACMS missiles have a range of roughly 190 miles. Russian President Vladimir Putin reacted by revising the Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the Kremlin's use of atomic weapons.
Putin also authorized the use of an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) in an air attack on Ukraine. Reports assert the IRBM, called Oreshnik by the Russians, was based on the Russian RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which accounts for the initial erroneous assessments that Ukraine had been attacked by an ICBM. Though the damage was minimal, media observers considered the use of the new missile a significant escalation in Moscow's attacks on Ukraine. Nonetheless, Russia now knows the missile's accuracy and other parameters in real-time combat employment. In a television address, Putin boasted that the US and European countries could not intercept it.
The commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces "told Putin that the Oreshnik can strike targets across Europe and stressed that there are no analogs to the Oreshnik anywhere in the world," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. Whether that’s true or not, the US has increased its shipments of anti-missile Patriot systems to Ukraine. Additionally, despite the boasting by the Kremlin leadership, ISW explained, "US and Ukrainian reporting on the November 21 ballistic missile strike, however, emphasized that the Oreshnik missile is not inherently a novel Russian capability."
Consider all the foreign assistance to Russia in its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the aperture for a more global conflict has opened. In a speech at the Ukrainska Pravda-100 award event, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukraine Armed Forces explained:
"I believe that in 2024, we can absolutely assume that World War III has begun. The reason is that in 2024, Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. Ukraine is facing soldiers from North Korea. Let's be honest. Iranian-made Shaheds [loitering munitions] are killing civilians in Ukraine quite openly. Its missiles made in North Korea that are being launched onto Ukraine, and they are openly declaring this. Chinese-made shells are exploding in Ukraine, and Chinese parts are used in Russian missiles."
Narrowly defining a "world war" as the number of countries involved in opposing Ukraine makes sense. Others take the threat of an expanding conflict further. Using the phrase World War III more liberally, commentators see a significant escalation with a potential for the employment of nuclear weapons. That Russia used the new generation of IRBM – which is capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, though the recent employment of the missile carried a conventional warhead – is a sign of Putin's willingness to consider tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict. "This is another step up the escalation ladder, and no one knows where this is going," Congressman Michael Waltz (R-FL) told Fox News. Waltz has been selected as President-elect Donald Trump's national security adviser.
Pundits Raise Specter of Nuclear War
There are still others who are more concerned. "Today, the world is likely closer to nuclear war than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis. In its closing days, the Biden Administration is stumbling our nation into a potential nuclear war with Russia," said Michael Flynn, former national security adviser to Trump and a retired Lieutenant General, in a Substack article. Regardless of what you think about Flynn's assessment – hyperbole or prudent warning – the circumstances for the White House have significantly changed.
There has been a lackluster response beginning over a thousand days ago with ineffective incremental support from NATO and the Biden administration. Since then, the situation today has the US, all of NATO, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China engaged in some manner in the conflict. Some estimates have the number of forces from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) as high as 30,000. Even at the more conservative 10,000 to 11,000 estimate of DPRK combatants, the stakes for Russia and its partners have risen.
Maintaining the as-long-as-it-takes Biden approach to the conflict means there is no end in sight. And the escalation in hostilities will make negotiating a peaceful resolution more complicated for the incoming Trump administration.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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