Illegal Immigrants Caused Major Spike in Housing Prices: Fed Economists

To the surprise of absolutely no one, the record-breaking number of illegal immigrants who poured into the US on President Joe Biden’s watch triggered a spike in home prices and rent, according to a new working paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Fed economists who authored the study found that the “unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration… raised local house prices and rents without expanding housing supply, consistent with a housing demand shock in the face of short-run inelastic supply.” The authors noted that the paper is a “preliminary [draft] circulated for professional comment” and the details therein “do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.”

Illegal Immigrants and American Housing

The paper’s authors estimated that a staggering 30% of the growth in house prices and 20% of the growth in rental costs “for the average local market” can be attributed to the flood of illegal immigrants who entered the US during the Biden administration.

The median sale price of homes in the US is $366,667 as of April 30, 2026, according to Zillow, an online real estate marketplace. If the Fed paper is correct, then that price would be around $256,667 without the surge of illegal immigrants.

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Zillow’s affordability calculator recommends an annual income of $150,000, just $250 in monthly debts, and a $20,000 down payment to comfortably afford a $368,000 home. For a $260,000 home, however, the site’s annual income recommendation drops to $110,000, with the monthly debts and down payment remaining the same.

According to the most recent available data, the median earnings of full-time workers are just over $60,000 per year. So, two adults – say, husband and wife - earning the median income could comfortably afford the median home before the illegal immigrant surge – but not after.

US Congressional Budget Office data show that illegal immigration from 2021 to 2024 added approximately 7 million people to the US – almost “double that of legal immigration.” “To put this growth in perspective, net unauthorized immigration — that is, immigration of individuals who entered the country without being formally admitted for purposes of immigration law — averaged only 0.1 million a year from 2000 to 2019 and was slightly negative from 2010 to 2019,” the paper noted.

Americans are ‘Doing Okay Financially’

The Fed economists’ paper comes as affordability remains a top concern for Americans heading into the midterm elections. Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve Board issued a report that examined the most recent Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), which was conducted in late 2025. It revealed 73 percent of American adults are “doing okay financially” or "living comfortably,” but noted “certain demographic groups, including low-income, young, and Black adults, saw meaningful declines.”

The survey also found that “price increases” and "finding or keeping a job” are top concerns, as “the share of young adults who live with their parents” increases. “In 2025, 49 percent of adults under age 30 lived with a parent. This share was up by 6 percentage points since 2022, and up 12 percentage points since 2019, just before the pandemic,” the report added.

Nearly half of the adults surveyed between the ages of 18 and 29 “received help from someone outside their household to pay an expense” over the previous year – with housing costs ranking among the most common reasons people needed assistance.

President Donald Trump has started focusing more on Americans’ affordability concerns, revealing on Monday that Walmart has agreed to lower prices “by a lot, at my Administration's request to celebrate our great Country's 250th birthday.” Trump urged “other Retailers” to follow Walmart’s lead, and any price drop would certainly give Americans some financial breathing room. But if the Fed economists’ report is right, and there’s little reason to doubt it, then there appears to be one surefire way to lower the cost of living: continuing Trump’s mass deportation agenda. With the midterms around the corner, the clock is ticking.