The Candidates’ Market Report
President Trump’s hits the big five-o once again this week in terms of his approval numbers. At the same time in his presidency, Barack Obama was only on 46%, signifying – perhaps – that Trump may be well on his way to a second term. Maybe the most noticeable political polling this week is that Congress seems to be clawing back the odd point here and there, despite being well on the sidelines … Perhaps it really is the case that absence makes the heart grow fonder.
While Nancy Pelosi is still riding high on the hog, Mitch McConnell appears to be lying in a muddy ditch by the side of the road crying for help. But not to worry, with his meager approval ratings (22%) at least he has the company of Chuck Schumer (23%), who just can’t seem to cash in on that Primary Popularity buzz that’s going around.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 50% ( + 4% )
- Congress – 17% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 6/4
- Joe Biden – 11/4
- Bernie Sanders – 5/1
- Kamala Harris – 17/2
- Andrew Yang – 10/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
Creeping up from 15/8 to a respectable 6/4, Elizabeth Warren is beginning to look like the firm favorite among cash bettors. But! Although the gamblers say she’s going to win it, at least six major polling companies this week had her in the third position behind both Biden and Sanders; could there eventually be a clash of odds and polls?
Joe Biden plays it steady on 11/4 smack bang in the middle of Warren and Sanders.
Kamala Harris is continuing her sure and steady decline, dropping an extra point and a half to 17/2. This shouldn’t worry her too much as she is still likely to be offered the VP ticket by either of the top two candidates. However, it appears that as the race moves on, she is the only candidate not moving up the list. Both Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang have managed to claw back a couple of points this week, and even Bernie Sanders has moved up one point (although is still third in line to the throne).
- Donald Trump – EVS
- Elizabeth Warren – 7/2
- Joe Biden – 11/2
- Bernie Sanders – 9/1
- Kamala Harris – 14/1
- Andrew Yang – 17/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 20/1
- Cory Booker – 66/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
Just about all Democratic Party contenders improved their odds this week. Beto O’Rourke came back from 100/1 to a mere 66/1, putting him in direct competition with Spartacus Booker. Yang and Buttigieg each gained a few points, Sanders crept up two points, and Joe Biden eked out an extra half point.
Elizabeth Warren jumped a whole point to place her on 7/2, still behind the president, who remains on Even Money.
For those who like a little prognostication with their polling, it’s worth considering that when the polls and the betting odds are so widely different, someone is going to suffer, and it’s not going to be the incumbent. This division (Warren leading the betting odds and Biden leading the polls) does not create a united front to fight a campaign. The Warren camp will be accusing pollsters of trying to favor Biden, while the Biden camp will be seething that “big money donors” are secretly trying to sway the bets against him.
And President Trump will sit in the White House laughing to himself as the two campaigns prepare to engage in mutually assured destruction.
- Impeachment – 2/9
- Resignation – 1/12
- Trump to dye his hair red, white and blue -200/1
- Trump to surgically enhance his hands – 500/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.