Not long ago, there was near hysteria over unexplained unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) sightings around and over military installations. Warnings of the potential national security breaches of explosive-laden large UAVs and first-person view (FPV) drone attacks were the news of the day. However, with the half-life of public attention in a 24-hour news cycle world, once President Trump explained the sightings were not an indication of immediate threats, interest waned quickly. Still, with Ukraine's demonstration of the effectiveness of FPVs against the Russian strategic bomber force, "what-ifs" have turned into "whens."
Drone Attacks Could Happen Anywhere
Although the preparation and logistics took 18 months to complete, the actual Ukrainian FPV quadcopter operation was relatively straightforward. Russian truck drivers, apparently unaware of what they were carrying, were given instructions on where to drive and then park. The covers, controlled remotely, were removed from the tops of the trucks, and the drones were launched. Each explosive-laden quadcopter then flew over the perimeter fence and attacked strategic bombers parked on the ramp. This operation took place in a country that is anything but open and free.
Contrast Russia with the US, where people purchase drones just as sophisticated as those used in the raid every day – minus the explosive charge, of course. Amazon alone estimates that sales of some FPV drone models reach 1,000 per month. According to the Hoover Institute, "in 2019, Janes intelligence group projected that 82,000 drones would be purchased worldwide over the next decade." That was before Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the resulting explosive proliferation of drones.
Unlike here in America, the drone components used in the attack had to be smuggled into Russia. In the US, Amazon will deliver a capable FPV drone in just a couple of days. Some reports, particularly amusing, suggest that US citizens are unlikely to purchase FPV drones for use as weapons because the Federal Aviation Administration has regulations against weaponizing drones. This notion falls into the same category as believing American bank robbers won't rob banks because it's against the law.
Let's, as a hypothetical, suggest that there are bad actors who, seeing the Ukraine strike on Russian air bases, decide to use FPV drones to attack the myriad Air Force, Navy, and US Marine Corps air fields located across the US. The Daily Caller reported that "China, which has emerged as a global leader in drone technology, has already designed trucks capable of launching 48 kamikaze drones from a nondescript container, and it is actively expanding the concept with inspiration from other Western designs. The systems currently in testing can utilize seemingly innocuous small vehicles to launch a swarm of explosives."
Combine the enthusiasm with which China is developing and proliferating its drone technology with the uninspiring capability of the US military to counter drone attacks, and there is little doubt America's Armed Forces have a problem. At a recent conference at the Center for a New American Security, the Air Force Chief of Staff, General David Allvin, discussed the Ukraine drone assault on Russia and the shortfall the US faces in securing its military installations – particularly its air bases – from drone attacks. "This shows us that seemingly impenetrable locations maybe are not. We need to pay more attention to that," Allvin said.
US Air Bases: Lucrative Targets
Most of the state-side US military bases, particularly US Navy and Air Force air installations, have large parking ramps with dozens of US fighter, strategic bomber, airlift, and aerial refueling aircraft as sitting ducks. Depending on the military air bases, these aircraft could be a quarter mile or less from the installation perimeter fence. With a swarm of FPV quadcopter-like drones carrying explosives skimming at low-level across the ground, most US military facilities and aircraft would be defenseless. In many cases US military aircraft including, strategic bombers, aren’t any better protected than the Russian planes were. "Despite the urgent need, the US military has not yet invested enough in low-altitude drone defenses to protect its bases at home from an attack by FPV drones,” Masao Dahlgren, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Task and Purpose. “For the most part, military installations, cities, and critical infrastructure within the United States are not protected by weapon systems designed to destroy drones."
When discussing the vulnerability of US air bases and assigned aircraft, senior military leaders routinely talk about the Ukraine FPV drone attack on Russian airfields as a "wake-up" call for defending vital US capability. This does not say much for the vigilance that many thought already existed. Remember when unmanned aerial vehicles were spotted near and over Langley Air Force Base, Virginia? We were told then this was a "wake-up" call to increase defensive capabilities for US military installations. "Vice President J.D. Vance has warned that unmanned drone systems pose a serious challenge to national security," a Heritage Foundation report observed. It's time to heed the warning. Don't let the drone threat catch the US military snoozing.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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