
Vladimir Putin (Photo by Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images)
While Moscow threatens to invade Ukraine, Russian leaders might want to gaze eastward to a potentialĀ invasionĀ of their own country. They wonāt have far to look, thanks to Beijingās nearly maniacal appetite for expansion. For some time, China-watchers have reported an invasion of Russiaās far eastern region by Chinese farmers. And as recently as two years ago, the Peopleās Republic of China (PRC) made the point that the seaport of Vladivostok belonged to Beijing.

Vladimir Putin (Photo by Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images)
The prospect of Russiaās president Putin amassing troops on the Ukraine border and threatening the West while Chinese squatters are quietly but surely sent into the Russian Far East (RFE) is curious. The on-again, off-again migration of farmers and small businesses across the Russian border has been a geopolitical topic since the late 1990s. The issue, however, has been just below the radar for most pundits, who believe the design the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has on the RFE is no longer high on the CCPās list of to-dos. That line of thinking may be premature.
Some estimates suggest between 300,000 and 500,000 Chinese farmers have crossed the border, but more conservative numbers were in the 29,000 range in 2010. The influence of Chinaās looming presence on the Russian Bearās frontier from a geopolitical perspective has not gone entirely unnoticed. There is some concern for two reasons. āFirst, Russians view it in the context of the enormous and growing economic and population incongruence with China and second, the three-decades-long Sino-Soviet confrontation, including border clashes in the late 1960s,ā explains Ivan Tselichtchev in aĀ South China Morning PostĀ article. Yet the PRC is in theĀ land-gobblingĀ game for the long haul. Additionally, over time there has been a festering resentment in the Chinese government that goes back centuries. āFrom the Treaty of Nerchinsk (1689) to the Convention of Peking (also known as the Treaty of Beijing), the border between the two countries had been adjusted in Russiaās favor by what China has referred to as āunequal treaties,āā as John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, wrote in his 2020.
As an aside, though still relevant, there is a notion Russia lost control of former Soviet bloc nations when the Soviet Union dissolved because NATO and, principally, the U.S. took advantage of the Kremlinās state of disarray with āunequal treaties.ā Putin routinely makes this point in talking about the December 5, 1994, Budapest Memorandum supporting Ukraineās independence and sovereignty. So, itās true: āWhat goes around, comes around.ā
What should be troubling for Putin are recent reports of Beijingās not-so-subtle claims that Vladivostok might belong to the PRC. āā¦Chinaās claims over Russiaās Vladivostok are not limited to state-owned media. Even Chinese diplomats have jumped in,ā reports Akshay Narang inĀ The Frustrated Indian PostĀ (TIFIPOST), a conservative Indian blog gaining readership in East Asia. But such accounts raise the question of whether China can be serious about its claims. It seems so. When convenient, the CCP invokes historical precedent to substantiate what it sees as legitimate. āāThe history of Vladivostok (literally Ruler of the East) is from 1860 when Russia built a military harbor.ā But the City was Haishenwai as Chinese land before Russia annexed it via unequal Treaty of Beijing,ā declared Shen Shiwei in a state-affiliated media tweet. Keep in mind Vladivostok is the home and primary operating base of Moscowās Pacific Fleet, including nuclear surface ships and submarines. Vladivostok is also Russiaās operating portal to the Arctic. Nonetheless, Beijingās hubris knows no bounds, and Moscowās essential portal to the Pacific could be in the CCPās sights.
The China-Russia border influx of Chinese and Beijingās claims on Russian territories may just be a little wrinkle in an otherwise beautifulĀ friendship. Or there could be a real problem for Putin lurking just under the smile and friendly handshake of President Xi.Ā Referring again to Herbstās words, āThis is all low key, but China meticulously advances its claims with references to history and, also, with little fanfare at first. The Chinese invented the long game.ā For President Xi, itās just a matter of time.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
~Ā Read more from Dave Patterson.