The greatest late-night host of all time, Johnny Carson, developed a schtick many years ago which became one of his trademarks. He would say, for example, “it’s really hot today here in Burbank,” to which the audience would respond, “how hot is it?” Then he would provide a knee-slapping answer, like “It’s so hot, Jehovah’s Witnesses started telemarketing,” or “It’s so hot I saw a bird pull a worm out of the ground with an oven mitt.”
Now, let’s employ that same process – unfortunately not with the same degree of humor – to describe the sad state of the collapsing Democratic Party days before they face a reckoning from voters across the land.
How bad do things look for Democrats? Let us count the ways.
Democrats in Freefall
Start with arguably the most glaring example of the party’s descent since it took control of the national government two years ago. We’re talking about the state of Washington – the deepest of deep blue states where the largest city, Seattle, makes San Francisco seem almost conservative by comparison. Senator Patty Murray, left-wing incumbent in her 30th year in the Senate, should be waltzing to re-election. She was 20 points ahead in July, and few bothered to even pay attention to the race, any more than they would a Senate race in Mississippi, where the Republican always wins. It was going to be just another blowout win for Murray – and a sixth term – after she had wiped out her GOP opponent by 18 points back in 2016, and Joe Biden had walloped Donald Trump by 21 points there in 2020.
But now, incredibly, Sen. Murray is fighting for her political life with not one but two recent polls – from Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage – showing a statistical dead heat in her race with Republican Tiffany Smiley. And the outlook is just as bleak for the left in neighboring Oregon – home of the progressive hell known as Portland – where Republican Christine Drazan has led in every poll might soon become the state’s first GOP Governor in 35 years. And further down the coast, Democrats are being forced to pull out all the stops to avoid expected losses of a swath of House seats in far-left California. These three states represent the western belly of the progressive beast.
The east coast version of the beast is, of course, New York, where tone-deaf Governor Kathy Hochul has seen her 24-point lead in mid-summer dissolve into a dead heat after demonstrating no interest in the pivotal issue of crime. It came to a head with Hochul’s breathtakingly out-of-touch remark in response to her opponent, Lee Zeldin, attacking cashless bail laws that have led to repeat offenders committing unspeakable crimes: “I don’t know why that’s so important to you.” In the heart of the blue portion of the heartland, Michigan’s controversial Governor Gretchen Whitmer was as many as 18 points ahead in one survey as recently as early October. But after telling a bold-faced lie about the length of her COVID lockdown, she has fallen into a tie in the latest poll from Insider Advantage.
On the flip side, the Democrats’ loss is the Republicans’ gain, but not just for this election cycle. It is no exaggeration to say that the results on November 8 may ultimately confirm a trend that has been building over six years, signaling profound changes in the electoral college map. This is because of the undeniably rightward movement in two crucial states long considered both purple and must-wins for presidential candidates of both parties: Ohio and Florida.
Ron DeSantis (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
In the Buckeye State, upstart JD Vance appears headed to victory in his Senate race, after Donald Trump turned the state solidly red with eight-point victories in both 2016 and 2020, and GOP Governor Mike DeWine is some 20 points up in his bid for reelection. But it is the Sunshine State where the electoral map is pivoting in the most profound fashion, thanks to Governor Ron DeSantis. In the four years since he assumed office, the state has turned from purple not just to red, but deep red. DeSantis leads by 12 points and GOP Sen. Marco Rubio by eight points in their bids for re-election.
There is no understating the effect going forward of Republicans controlling the 47 electoral votes in these two large states rather than having to compete heavily for them. Added to the 40 electoral votes in Texas, they will significantly shrink the built-in advantage Democrats have long enjoyed in deep blue and heavily populated New York, Illinois, and California.
Add it all up, and Democrats are facing a rising red tide of their own making headed straight their way not just in 2022, but two years from now, when a deeply unpopular Joe Biden – or some other Democrat forced to defend his record – will face the judgment of the American people. Come November 8, they might best be advised to follow the advice of the late great John Belushi and start drinking heavily.
