At the White House briefing on Tuesday, March 31, President Trump announced that America is facing an extremely challenging period in its fight against the COVID-19 virus. The predicted death toll has risen dramatically, and the country is warned to brace for potentially millions of infections. The mathematical models presented show total U.S. deaths within a range of 100K – 240K. Yesterday 4,081 American deaths in total were attributed to the Coronavirus. The age breakdown of that number is not readily available; however, Liberty Nation is researching that information because, of course, it is relevant.
It should be stated that the figures being presented by the U.S. medical experts are based on computer models, and as programmers the world over have discovered, models are subject to the concept of GIGO – Garbage In, Garbage Out. If the information and parameters provided to the U.S. government have been inaccurate or even fraudulent, then the death toll prediction is likely to be in error. Thus, the U.S. response to the situation will be thrown off as well.
Models, Models Everywhere
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and frontman for the American Coronavirus response, warned that the public should brace themselves for what the analysts are now predicting. When questioned about the estimates of between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths, he said, “Is it going to be that much? I hope not. But being realistic, we need to prepare ourselves, that that is a possibility.”
Naturally, those figures are a possibility, but the source of the initial data must be carefully reviewed. All the pertinent facts – where did this model originate, using what country as its source, etc. are all valid questions.
The Coronavirus response coordinator, Dr. Deborah Birx, was a little more reticent in her trust in the computer models, saying, “We really believe and hope every day that we can do a lot better than that.” She went on to make it clear that the figures were based on one particular model – that of Italy.
Chris Murray of the University of Washington predicts that the peak in fatalities will be on April 16, measuring over 2,600 on that day. But what if the initial data is, in fact, erroneous? Murray can only program based on the information he has been given. Should that data prove to be massaged, then all bets are off.
Hope or Fear?
The U.S. and much of the world have become victims of a chaotically organized narrative from each country that could do vast harm morally, economically, and even physically to many.
Unprecedented measures are being taken across the nation at both federal and state-level to stem the tide of the COVID-19 surge in America. For a free people, this is a difficult time, and perhaps we should be circumspect about the models and the numbers being bandied about.
One day in the not too distant future – and once all the dust has settled – we would be wise to evaluate the computer models with reality. Only then will we be able to place the blame where it belongs and perhaps understand how best to deal with future situations such as COVID-19.
Read more from Mark Angelides.