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Whatever the outcome of the 2026 midterms, senior power players in the Democratic Party will be positioning themselves to either claim credit or castigate — with the ultimate aim of positioning themselves for higher office two years down the line. The most high-profile get-together will be in Denver, Colorado, where notable names will gather to either commiserate or celebrate the November performance, and jockey to become the leading voice of their party.
Billed as the “What’s Next” summit, this Majority Democrats PAC-sponsored gathering will be more of a “who’s next.” Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock, and Rahm Emanuel, among others, will attend the event beginning Nov. 12 to ostensibly set out the party priorities. In reality, this may be more a beauty pageant for the party figurehead role.
Democrats Get Ducks in a Row
Massachusetts Rep. Jake Auchincloss (and chair of Majority Democrats) said, “This isn’t a policy conference nor a talk shop on tactics... What’s Next is timed for a unique moment after the midterms and before the presidential to debate a vision for the Democratic Party. Politicians who believe they have that vision should be on that stage.”
It appears to be an early-round job interview for attendees to gain support from the other attendees, most likely with the aspiration to then present a “united front” to other big power players – and, of course, donors. The problem for the attendees is that they don’t quite know which job they’ll be vying for.
Will the hopefuls be looking to lead a party that is fresh off a resounding blue wave? Or a head-shaking caucus that can’t quite believe the polls got it so wrong again? Is the party looking for a leader who can maintain position or a wartime maverick who can lead an insurgent push from near defeat? And finally, how does one position oneself in advance for a role that is not yet determined?
A Coin Flip Future
As to whether Democrats will be licking wounds or making plans for government, that – as ever – comes down to a handful of key races. Flipping the House is historically likely, with many forecasters predicting gains of roughly 20 seats. But that alone won’t give them the governing power they want.
Polymarket suggests Democrats have a 65% chance of taking the upper chamber. It’s in their favor, but not massively. A forecast model from Decision Desk HQ reckons on a 56% chance. Ultimately, it comes down to a handful of races that are well within the margin of error.
Former President Barack Obama made this exact point at a recent fundraiser:
“All these races that are showing we’ve got a two- or three-point lead or it’s a toss-up, we could end up losing all of them by two points… It’s within the margin of error.”
So how does one prepare to woo supporters for a potential presidential run when you don’t yet know whether you’ll be leading a winning, half-winning, or losing party?
A Veritable Topiary of Hedges
The consummate politico is invariably skilled at saying something while saying nothing. Not in a Kamala-esque word salad, but rather delivering tropes that sound fresh while remaining noncommittal. And this appears to be the current holding-pattern politics on display. No one is quite willing to put their head above the parapet – yet.
The two years until the presidential election is an eternity. And even if Democrats manage to win both chambers of Congress, they still have to contend with the powerful presidential veto. Months of infighting over whether to try for a third impeachment and the inability to pass legislation could prove more damaging than being the minority party, and voters may walk into 2028 thinking, “What have you done for me lately?”
Whoever takes the early lead in the popularity contest might well be damaged goods by the time primaries come around, so a head of steam right now could turn to burnout when it comes to who is best situated in 2028.
Perhaps it’s better to be the old man — or woman — behind the curtain than the Great and Powerful Oz, at least until the Johnny-and-Jane-come-earlies have been eaten by their own.
