A series of high-profile events appears to have had an energizing effect on the Donald Trump campaign. In fact, this last week might prove to be the most decisive in the election cycle. Whether the former president can capitalize on this trio of episodes and ride them all the way to Election Day could well determine who holds the keys to the White House next year.
Number 1: Trump’s Trial Reprieve
Friday afternoon, Judge Juan Merchan announced he is moving Donald Trump’s sentencing date, concerning the 34 felonies related to falsifying business records, to after the election. Previously scheduled to take place on Sept. 18, it will now happen three weeks past Election Day, on November 26. Announcing the decision, he wrote: “The public’s confidence in the integrity of our judicial system demands a sentencing hearing that is entirely focused on the verdict of the jury and the weighing of aggravating and mitigating factors free from distraction or distortion.” Sounding a bit defensive, Merchan added, “The Court is a fair, impartial, and apolitical institution.” He continued:
"Adjournments for sentencing are routinely granted, often several times, in any number of other criminal matters pending in this courthouse, particularly when unopposed, for reasons ranging from personal circumstances to the scheduling needs of the parties involved. Given the unique facts and circumstances of this case, there is no reason why this Defendant should be treated any differently than any other.
"This is not a decision this Court makes lightly, but it is the decision which in this Court's view, best advances the interests of justice."
The former president continues to appeal the initial verdict, and in light of the Supreme Court decision in Trump v. United States, there remains a strong possibility that the final decision on this case will not be made in Judge Merchan’s court.
Mr. Trump can now campaign freely without the fear of movement restrictions being imposed. Should he win the election, it is difficult to see a scenario where he faces anything other than fiscal penalties.
Number 2: RFK Jr. Is All In
Two weeks ago, the independent candidate for president, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., suspended parts of his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump in the ten states where he believed his candidacy might prove a spoiler for the 45th president. On Thursday, Sept. 5, he went a step further and closed his campaign in almost all reliably red states.
“No matter what state you live in, I urge you to vote for Donald Trump. The reason is that is the only way we can get me and everything I stand for into Washington D.C. and fulfill the mission that motivated my campaign,” he wrote in a fundraising email.
He is, however, still pursuing the opportunity to get on the ballots in bluer climes such as New York and Oregon.
Not only is Kennedy an effective campaigner and fundraiser, but he also commands a following of loyal supporters who hope to see him at or near the levers of power. Donald Trump's presentation of what he calls a “unity government” could prove enticing to independent voters.
Number 3: Nate Silver Has Some News
Poll guru and statistician Nate Silver, on Sept. 6, announced that, according to his latest modeling, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election are at their highest point. His forecast suggests that Harris has just a 39.7% chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Trump’s 60.1% - with each earning 260 and 277 EC votes, respectively.
Silver noted that VP Harris should have had a significant bump after the Democratic Convention, but that small wave failed to materialize. It seems that “Kamalamentum” may have run its course. He said there has been “comparatively poor polling for Harris in Pennsylvania, which is disproportionately important given Pennsylvania's likelihood of being the pivotal state. As a result, the Electoral College forecast has swung more than the popular vote forecast."
The RealClear Politics average of polls for The Keystone State has also closed the gap. On Aug. 30, Ms. Harris was almost a whole point ahead; the two contenders are now tied at 47.2%. Perhaps most importantly, of the last seven Pennsylvania polls, Harris reached a draw in two and only won one – meaning Trump has taken the lead in four.
Plenty of Time to Blow It
A week is a long time in politics; another six are a virtual eternity. There is plenty that can happen to Donald Trump’s campaign between now and November 5, from court decisions to polling disasters. He could even let his exuberance and bombast derail the whole show. But for now, with Kamala Harris essentially running a basement campaign and refusing to speak beyond the confines of a prepared script, he appears to have the upper hand.
