Tomorrow, August 16, Representative Liz Cheney will ask Wyoming voters for their support in handing her the nomination to the state's "at large congressional district." From her activity on the January 6 committee to her vote in support of impeaching former President Donald Trump, Cheney is in an unenviable position going into her primary in this deep red state. But will the daughter of a former vice president turn an expected loss into a career-building win?
The Numbers So Far
Of those running, all the attention is on Cheney and Trump-backed attorney Harriet Hageman. Mason-Dixon Polling in June gave Hageman a stunning 22-point lead; other surveys reflect a similar outlook. Only 29% of residents approve of Cheney's decision to serve on the Jan. 6 panel; 63% disapprove. Furthermore, 61% of poll respondents said the incumbent's opposition to Trump impacts her ability to deal with Wyoming affairs effectively. However, it is not just polling that portends Cheney's fate.
Social media sentiment has been gaining prominence as a tool for determining popularity. Although it has statistical drawbacks due to being cultivated from sources worldwide, its use for analytics is in showing public opinion. By this metric, Liz Cheney should be very worried. A CrowdWisdom.live analysis for August 10 shows that "Liz Cheney's net social media sentiment is (-92%). The worst for any candidate, anywhere in the world." Compared with Hageman's figure (-10.2%), the data suggests that winning Tuesday's primary will be a significant uphill battle for the Trump foe.
No Dynasty
Dick Cheney (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
For his early supporters, Donald Trump's outsider credentials were bolstered by a willingness to go after America's political dynasties. During his first campaign, he took swipes at the Bush family, the Cheney family, and of course, the Clintons. The animosity between the upstart candidate and the legacy names only continued as Trump-brand insults flew fast and furious. Many in the Bush clan have still not forgiven him for labeling presidential contender Jeb "low-energy." It seems the Cheneys have plenty of ire left in reserve as well.
Former Vice President Dick Cheney appears to have been biding his time in doling out a cold dish of revenge. It finally came in the form of a TV ad spot campaigning for his daughter in which he said, "In our nation's 246-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump." He continued, calling Trump a "coward" and insisting that Liz was the only one capable of holding him to account.
But beyond just making the case for her to continue serving the people of Wyoming, he was also laying the groundwork for an unlikely political comeback.
What Dreams May Come for Liz Cheney
Liz Cheney (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
If Cheney is – as expected – unsuccessful in gaining the nomination, will this deter her from running for the presidency in 2024? As is typical, questions on potential candidacy for the presidential nomination are dodged or ducked by those who wish to control the timing of their final announcement. Cheney's recent deflection on ABC when asked if she was willing to run was consummate in its delivery. "The single most important thing is protecting the nation from Donald Trump," she declared, and said she would decide about 2024 "down the road."
With her recent efforts to convince the small Democrat population in Wyoming to keep her in office, Cheney has shown that she is willing to work with whomever she can. That she is the star quarterback of the Jan. 6 committee doesn't hurt her credentials with the political left, either. When the ballots are all counted, don’t be surprised to find a resilient Liz Cheney claiming that only she can rid the GOP of dangerous Trump supporters who have hijacked the party she and her father served faithfully – and that losing her seat has set her free to do just that.
