The California Count Goes On

Of the six states that held primary contests yesterday, June 2, none were more closely watched than those in California – and that’s a situation that is unlikely to change any time soon. With the Golden State's history of drawn-out election counts, the final results may not be declared for days, but with more than half the votes tallied, a rough sketch of November’s battle arena is beginning to take shape.

California Dreaming

The California gubernatorial contest to replace term-limited Gavin Newsom was, as ever, an outsized event. It’s a position that provides heft and national name recognition. In the last 50 years, the governor’s slot has been occupied by big names like Ronald Reagan, Jerry Brown (for a whopping 16 years in total), and Arnold Schwartzenegger, not to mention the outgoing incumbent who clearly has his sights set on an even higher office come 2028.

Due to the open primary process, there was some early speculation that (although unlikely) two Republicans could make it to the November election, but as the numbers roll in, it has become clear that’s not going to happen.

With 57% of the vote counted, Republican Steve Hilton, a British American political fixer and former Fox News host, is leading the pack with 28%, closely followed by former Golden State attorney general (and Joe Biden’s secretary of Health and Human Services) Xavier Becerra with 25%. If things continue as they are, these two men will be gunning for the top spot.

Notably, the current third-slot holder is billionaire and perennial candidate (for just about any office) Tom Steyer with 19%. At this point, it seems too steep a hill to climb to get him onto the ballot alongside Becerra.  So, what do the partial results signify in terms of party support?

If we tally the main players’ vote totals by party affiliation, Democrats have over 55% of the whole (presently around 2.3 million ballots), and Republicans have roughly 43% (about 1.8 million votes). It’s quite the gap. But, of course, this is a jungle primary, and tactical voting can play a large part in the race. There’s also the issue of scandals that have so far forced former Congressman Eric Swalwell to drop out and left gubernatorial hopeful Katie Porter (also of the US Congress) to concede with just 5% of the votes in her favor. Anything can still happen in this hotly contested match.

Bass Scrapes a Slot – at Least

The Los Angeles mayoral race is not usually such a high-profile affair and has not returned a Republican this century. While the contest is not party-affiliated, most candidates run as though it is.  Incumbent Democrat mayor Karen Bass, despite the desperate situation in the City of Angels, has secured a spot in the November run-off. With 63% of the vote counted, she has 35%. In the second slot is reality TV star and Trump-endorsed Spencer Pratt with 30%.

As things look, Mayor Karen Bass will likely not get the more than 50% needed to avoid a run-off and will end up being the first incumbent to not win outright since 2005.

Coming in third slot is LA councilmember Nithya Raman with 22%. It’s a unique set of circumstances for the embattled mayor as she has had to fend off challenges from both the left (Raman) and right (Pratt). Pratt has proven himself to be an effective campaigner and does not have the baggage of a politician who is overseeing the continued decline of the city he wishes to represent. A week is a long time in politics, and five months is a practical eternity. If the final results set Bass and Pratt on a head-to-head collision course in November, it may prove quite the spectacle.

Nothing Is Decided – Yet

Among the poll watching and partisan cheerleading in California is an undercurrent of anticipated frustration. Certainly, more than half of the votes have been tallied in both major races, but the final result could take days or weeks to filter through.

Political analyst and creator of the now-defunct FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, lamented the seeming inability of California to get the votes counted. On X, he posted:

“The fact that California elections often can't be resolved for weeks is kind of insane and not common in other electoral systems around the world.

“Like honestly ‘it's going to take us several weeks to tell you who won the election’ is failed state sh** and should be much more stigmatized.

“The fact that it's tolerated is bad [and a] textbook example of learned helplessness.”

Mr. Silver echoes a growing chorus of millions who remain flummoxed that votes cannot be counted in a single night. If Charles Dickens’ three spirits can change the attitude of a cantankerous Ebenezer Scrooge in the same timeframe, surely the wealthiest, most-populous state in the nation can tally a bunch of paper. Apparently not.

California is in the unique position of being a powerhouse state that is publicly bleeding out. Its people are leaving, its crime rate is out of control, and its reputation as a global leader is on thin ice. An inability to swiftly and clearly deliver a verdict within a reasonable timeframe just compounds the notion that the glory days are in the rearview mirror. And that fact alone may be what makes the November elections in the Golden State well worth watching.