The Candidates’ Market Report
It seems that the G7 Summit in Biarritz has provided a much-needed boost for President Trump’s approval ratings. While his overall approval has remained steady for this year (with fluctuations of one or two points), the previous three weeks had seen a drop of a point per week. This week’s numbers show him on the rise with a 2% gain. It may not seem like much, but it puts him well ahead of former President Barack Obama, who was on just 44% during the same period of his presidency.
Being on the international stage in southern France, dealing with other world leaders, and announcing potential trade deals with Japan has almost certainly contributed to his rise in popularity. Could it be a case of comparing the president to the other leaders who all seemed to be having major issues in their home countries?
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 48% ( + 2% )
- Congress – 19% ( + 1%)
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 21/10
- Joe Biden – 5/2
- Bernie Sanders – 9/2
- Kamala Harris – 5/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 13/2
- Andrew Yang – 14/1
The betting odds on who is going to win the Democratic nomination have not changed much this week. Elizabeth Warren still leads with a razor-thin margin over Joe Biden with all other candidates at least two points behind the frontrunners. What this tells us is that people aren’t putting down any more money. It could be due to the increase in polling that suggests Biden will win a landslide, or it could be because boredom and apathy are buried deep in the hearts of potential voters.
Tracking the changes over time, we can see that when a major primary debate takes place, the betting odds begin to shift. But when candidates are off “doing their own thing,” little changes. Be on the lookout for swings and upsets as the third round of debates approach.
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/2
- Joe Biden – 5/1
- Kamala Harris – 9/1
- Bernie Sanders – 9/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
- Andrew Yang – 18/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 25/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 30/1
- Cory Booker – 35/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 40/1
This is the second week that Elizabeth Warren has occupied the number two spot; she’s still a long way off from toppling President Trump, who maintains a commanding lead. The Biden camp is likely in turmoil as they wonder whether a tipping point has been reached.
When Warren took the second place position from Biden last week, it could well have been written off as an outlier in the numbers (or perhaps a small flurry of significant bets), but that wouldn’t explain the apparent stability of the Warren position. Is it time for Biden to start sweating about his formerly-assured lead?
Donald Trump:
- Impeachment – 1/4
- Resignation – 1/12
- Trump to open Area 51 to the public during his first term in office – 2/1
- Trump to outlaw the theory of evolution – 50/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
