Traders on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on a government shutdown lasting two weeks or longer, with forecasts sharply rising since Thursday, Oct. 2. Meanwhile, more than 40% of Americans say the shutdown will last two weeks or less, according to a YouGov poll conducted October 1 and 2.
As of Oct. 6, Kalshi forecasts a shutdown lasting 17.8 days. That’s up from a forecast of 11.1 days on Oct. 2. Polymarket traders were betting the same day that the government would re-open on Oct. 15 or later, with a 74% probability. That’s up from 38% probability on Oct. 2. As the shutdown drags on, only 3% of traders expect lawmakers to strike a deal by Oct. 9.
Senate Votes Flounder
At the time of this writing, on day six of the government shutdown, the Senate was voting on one of two funding bills that could reopen the government. Both parties continue to blame the other side for the shutdown stalemate.
The first bill would have funded the government through the end of October, permanently extended the enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits set to expire at the end of the year, and reversed nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid eligibility contained in Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The measure failed to advance four times and is reportedly expected to fail again. The second bill the Senate is expected to vote on is advancing the clean continuing resolution the House passed, extending government funding through Nov. 21. That bill also failed four times.
Shutdown Whodunnit
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), calling it “Donald Trump’s government shutdown,” denied that Democrats want to extend healthcare to illegal aliens. “We want to reverse the devastating cuts to American healthcare that Republicans passed in their big, ugly bill,” Schumer said, “We want to extend the ACA tax credits that lower costs for eligible Americans. These are the plain facts. But Speaker Johnson and Republicans don’t want to deal with the facts. They don’t want to talk about healthcare.”
Schumer voted to avoid a government shutdown in March. The New York Democrat on Oct. 3 defended his change of position during a CNN appearance:
“There’s a lot of difference between now and then. Back then, we wanted to see what they would do. And we’ve seen how horrible they are. The healthcare cuts that they made were made in June, in their so-called big beautiful bill.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) blamed mounting pressure from the far left of the Democratic Party for Schumer’s vote this time around. “They decided they would pick a fight on healthcare,” Johnson said. “Let me look right into the camera and tell you very clearly, Republicans are the ones concerned about healthcare. Republicans are the party working around the clock every day to fix healthcare. We're not – this is not talking points for us. We've done it. A big part of the one big beautiful bill, the working families tax cut, was to fix health care.”
Pres. Donald Trump on Monday answered reporters’ questions on the shutdown in the Oval Office, after signing an executive order unlocking America’s critical mineral market in Alaska. Trump said a failed vote in the Senate could trigger layoffs. He blamed Democrats for the government shutdown.
“It’s about healthcare, to a large extent,” Trump said, “It’s about, we want great healthcare for people.” He expanded:
“We don’t want to give the money away to other people that come pouring into our country, and they’ve already poured, because nobody’s coming into our country now. We have the border totally stopped – the way you stop them is not to give away, not to announce that you’re giving everybody free health, free this and that. But what that does, it affects the American people because the American people are unable to get good healthcare.”
Funding gaps resulting in agencies closing and employees being furloughed have occurred 10 times since 1977. The last and longest shutdown began on December 21, 2018, during President Trump’s first administration and lasted for 34 days.
Heritage Foundation federal budget expert Richard Stern told FOX News that neither Republicans nor Democrats want to be responsible for causing essential government workers and the military to miss their pay.
Those approaching pay dates are Oct. 10 for federal workers and Oct. 15 for the military, according to the U.S. General Services Administration and Defense Finance and Accounting Service, respectively.
Kalshi’s prediction dropped from 21.7 days to 17.8 days at the end of Monday, while Polymarket stayed steady at an Oct. 15 or later end to the shutdown. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail as the shutdown drags on.
