The Candidates’ Market Report
Things are starting to get very interesting in the Democrat camp. This week we saw two major events that should have voters scratching their heads. The first being that Joe Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee have reached a formal agreement in terms of fundraising. This means that Biden’s campaign now has a lot more control over how cash is brought in; a useful tool as reports have President Trump almost $200 million ahead. It also signifies that the party is fully backing their presumptive nominee and is unlikely to jump horse as the convention approaches.
However, that brings us to the second major event. This week, the allegations of sexual assault made by former Biden staffer Tara Reade have gained weight and credibility as footage emerged of a 1993 Larry King phone-in, in which Reade’s mother apparently called in to discuss what avenues her daughter could pursue. What is most notable is that despite this clip seeming to back up her claims, the major media outlets have remained silent and not pursed avenues of inquiry. It appears that both the DNC and the MSM have saddled their horse and are willing to ride it home or until grim defeat … whichever comes first.
President Trump remains under near-constant attack by the media, with some polls suggesting that Democratic Party voters blame Trump more for the Coronavirus than they do China.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 45% ( – 1% )
- Congress – 23% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/33
- Hillary Clinton – 16/1
- Michelle Obama – 33/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 33/1
Biden has cemented his lead improving odds from 1/25 to 1/33, making every other potential contender seem a very weak second place. While New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has dropped to 33/1 – perhaps showing that no leading figures will remain untarred by the COVID-19 brush -Hillary Clinton is still on 16/1. Without a doubt, there are rumblings in the Clinton camp, whether they themselves are convinced or not, that some preparation work should be taking place … just in case.
In the battle to get on the Biden ticket, Kamala Harris remains the favorite on 2/1, closely followed by Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren. Harris has dropped a fraction of a point while Klobuchar has jumped three and a half making this a tight contest. The media appears to be swinging its considerable influence and weight behind Stacy Abrams, who has still not conceded the race for Georgia governor that she lost in 2018 to Republican Brian Kemp. Governor Gretchen Whitmer, despite increasing her odds this week, is facing considerable backlash from Michigan voters over her heavy-handed response to lockdown protests.
Biden’s Running Mate
- Kamala Harris – 2/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 7/2
- Elizabeth Warren – 4/1
- Gretchen Whitmer – 9/1
- Stacey Abrams – 10/1
- Michelle Obama – 10/1
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation’s Tim Donner puts it:
“Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in ’16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling – both swing states Trump lost in ’16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now.”
- Florida: Republican – 5/6 Democrats – 5/6
- Arizona: Democrats – 4/6 Republicans – 11/10
- Michigan: Democrats – 4/9 Republicans – 6/4
- Wisconsin: Democrats – 8/11 Republicans – 10/11
The Democratic National Convention has been postponed and is expected to begin on August 17.
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Joe Biden – EVS
- Andrew Cuomo – 50/1
- Mike Pence – 50/1
- Hillary Clinton – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 80/1
- Nikki Haley – 150/1
President Trump retains the lead to win the White Hosue in November, but Joe Biden is not quite the outsider candidate sitting on a comfortable Even Money position. Cuomo and Pence have both dropped ten points giving them the same odds as Hillary Clinton: 50/1. National polling between the two main contenders in match-up surveys give Biden a slight advantage, but still within the three-point margin of error. Unlike the 2016 election, the Democrat candidate does not appear to have an insurmountable lead; is this a case of pollsters being more wary of outright predictions after getting burned last time, or are shy Trump voters playing the same game and keeping their real opinions to themselves?
Betting odds suggest that although the Democratic Party may win the popular vote, the presidency will still go the Republican candidate.
- Trump’s party to win over 50 Senate seats – 5/6
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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