Political Horse Race: COVID Upsets 2020 Betting

The Candidates' Market Report

Betting on the presidential election has been suspended by bookmakers in the wake of President Trump's recent positive test for COVID-19.* Gambling companies have stopped displaying the odds and taking bets for the presidential election outcome, the Electoral College race, and other associated propositions. However, in light of this development, interest appears to have increased in Congressional races. At present, Democrats hold a slight edge on winning the Senate at 11/8 with Republicans close behind on two to one. The odds of no-overall-control are 7/4. Yet, if the historical trajectory is anything to go by, the GOP has increased its share of Senate seat over that several elections. The House seems certain to stay with Democrats with a 1/7 advantage.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 45% ( - 1% )
• Congress - 14% ( - 1% )

Senate Map:

When it comes to presidential elections, the shape of the next Senate is often overlooked. Here's a round-up of what the polls are saying right now:

• Republicans: 46
• Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 46
• Toss Up: 8

The states that are a toss-up include Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Of these, the latest polling indicates that Republicans will win three and Democrats will win five, giving a 51/49 split in favor of the Democrats.

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. (Last available numbers before suspension) Florida

• Republicans - 4/5
• Democrats - 10/11

Texas

• Republicans - 1/4
• Democrats - 5/2

Arizona

• Democrats - 4/7
• Republicans - 11/8

Colorado

• Democrats - 1/10
• Republicans - 5/1

Georgia

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 15/8

Iowa

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 15/8

Maine

• Democrats - 1/7
• Republicans - 4/1

Michigan

• Democrats - 2/7
• Republicans - 11/4

North Carolina

• Republicans - 4/5
• Democrats - 10/11

Ohio

• Republicans - 4/7
• Democrats - 5/4

Pennsylvania

• Democrats - 8/15
• Republicans - 11/8

Presidential Election:

(Last available numbers before suspension) The second aspect that makes this "groundbreaking" poll suspect is that it over-samples Democrats by a huge margin. 45% of respondents identify as somewhere on the Democrat scale compared with just 37% Republicans. The poor Independents have only 13% representation. Even when accounting for "leaners," these figures are just plain ridiculous and can in no way be considered a realistic sampling. And this is all without mentioning how irrelevant a national poll consisting of just 800 people is regarded in the polling world. Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump: (Last available numbers before suspension)

• 270 - 299 = 5/1
• 180-269 = 5/1
• 300 - 329 = 6/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

*Betting has now recommenced. ~ Read more from Mark Angelides.