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Political Horse Race: Gamblers Predict Trump Resurgence

The odds and the polls all point to one thing: Trump's star is on the rise.

by | Dec 10, 2019 | Columns, Politics

The Candidates’ Market Report

Democrats are moving ahead with impeachment, the Michael Horowitz report failed to find evidence of wrongdoing by the FBI in its investigation of President Trump and his campaign (despite numerous lies and omissions described); this should be the worst possible week for the president. But it’s not. A late surge in job approval ratings gives the president a 5% boost, placing him 7% above where Obama was during the same period of his presidency.

Part of this is likely due to stunning employment figures that saw 266K new jobs created in November, and the figures for September and October revised upward. Another aspect could be the rallying of the dollar, especially on the foreign markets. Most likely, however, is that the American public is not convinced by the efforts of House Democrats to impeach the president. The impeachment inquiry has dominated the airwaves for the last several weeks yet failed to land any significant blows. This may all change with the release of the specific articles of impeachment.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

  • Donald Trump – 51% ( + 5% )
  • Congress – 17% ( – 6% )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

  • Joe Biden – 3/1
  • Pete Buttigieg – 7/2
  • Elizabeth Warren – 4/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 5/1
  • Michael Bloomberg – 8/1
  • Hillary Clinton – 14/1
  • Andrew Yang – 20/1
  • Michelle Obama – 33/1
  • Amy Klobuchar – 35/1

It’s all changed this week. Joe Biden has secured the top spot to win the Democrat presidential nomination at three to one, closely followed by Pete Buttigieg, who is just half a point behind. Elizabeth Warren lost her prime position and is now sitting in an unhappy third, which is starting to be reflected in national polling. Bernie Sanders gained half a point, and Michael Bloomberg, the late entry, continues a slow and steady rise, gaining two points.

With Kamala Harris dropping out of the race, many pundits expected Cory Booker to receive a boost as the intersectionally-minded media began bemoaning the lack of non-white candidates vying for the top spot. Booker’s campaign managed to raise an extra million dollars, but has failed to excite either voters or cash bettors and remains languishing as a long shot on 100 to one.

Presidential Election:

  • Donald Trump – EVS
  • Joe Biden – 6/1 
  • Pete Buttigieg – 13/2
  • Elizabeth Warren – 7/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 17/2
  • Michael Bloomberg – 12/1
  • Andrew Yang – 25/1
  • Hillary Clinton – 33/1
  • Mike Pence – 40/1
  • Nikki Haley – 50/1
  • Michelle Obama – 50/1
  • Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
  • Mitt Romney – 90/1
  • Amy Klobuchar – 100/1

In terms of who may win the White House in 2020, President Trump is back on even money to gain a second term, Joe Biden hasn’t moved from his six to one second-place status, and the only major change is that Pete Buttigieg now has a half-point lead over Elizabeth Warren, who has sunk to fourth place.

One of the key things to watch is what is happening with the real outsiders: nothing. Those who have been rated at 20/1 or below have not seen any movement whatsoever. Even with Harris pulling out of the race, the third-tier candidates failed to gain a boost. This signifies that they will (barring any major event) remain outsiders; no one is betting on them and the public interest in their campaigns has begun to wane.

In what should have been the most difficult week for President Trump, he has maintained a strong lead. Democrats can still make a comeback if they survive the infighting and sly digging that has started between potential nominees.

Donald Trump:

  • Impeachment – 1/8
  • Resignation – 2/9
  • Trump will ban stairs – 500/1
  • Melania to run for president against Trump in 2020 – 200/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~

Read more from Mark Angelides.

Read More From Mark Angelides

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