He’s rapidly becoming a study in how to lose an election. Jay Jones – Democratic candidate for attorney general in the Commonwealth of Virginia – is doing a slow but sure limbo, as in “how low can you go?” And the answer is very. A brief examination of Jones' sinking poll numbers is worth reviewing with only six days to go until Election Day.
The latest survey posted Oct. 27 by Christopher Newport University shows Jones trailing his opponent, Jason Miyares, by one point. This is just the latest bad news in a campaign gone sour. In less than a month, Jones went from an average of 5.25% ahead of Miyares to an average of 3.3% behind. That’s a precipitous fall in popularity in such a short time.
In fact, all the polls since Jones’ horrific texts became public show him sinking like a rock. A flurry of surveys was conducted last week, and every single one – save The Washington Post poll, which shows the two candidates in a tie – had the GOP candidate beating Jones by between 1 and 7 points.
Jay Jones: Mum’s the Word
Although it’s too early for navel-gazing, Democrats are openly wondering if they did the right thing by ignoring the elephant in the room. During the only debate in the Virginia gubernatorial race between Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger and her opponent, Winsome Earl-Sears, Spanberger denounced Jones' violent text messages as “absolutely abhorrent.” While she condemned his actions, she did not go on to denounce the man. As well, the party obviously decided to ignore Jones’ outsized problem by not giving it any oxygen. That could turn out to be a critical error.
Democratic strategist Brad Brannon is one of those who believe his party missed the mark on the Jones fiasco. “Democrats should not tolerate Jones’s call for violence. Spanberger should cut him loose,” he told The Washington Post. He continued, “My party would be hypocritical if they criticize Trump’s violent threats but tolerate rhetoric like that from one of our own.”
Do Jones’ Texts Have Coattails?
It appears that Spanberger may have escaped the wrath of the Virginia voter. She doesn’t seem to be tarnished by her party’s attorney general candidate. While the polls are getting tighter in the Spanberger/Sears race, that may merely reflect the timetable. Most races tighten up in the final weeks of the campaign.
The Public Square, Liberty Nation News’ polling operation, has Spanberger up 7.6% on Sears. LNN Editor-in-Chief and project coordinator Mark Angelides has been watching the polls closely and remarked:
While Spanberger’s campaign appears not to have taken a major hit from the Jones scandal, it’s notable that a parsing of polls based on quality – specifically aggregating just those that include more than 1,000 likely voters - her seven-point lead shrinks to just over three points. It’s also worth noting that while Democrats have a major advantage in early voting numbers so far, we don’t yet know what will happen with in-person voting on election day.
Meanwhile, with Election Day just around the corner, Democrats have been turning out in droves in the Old Dominion. Thus far, they are leading Republicans in mail-in voting – especially in Democratic voter-rich Fairfax County. Members of the Grand Old Party appear to be showing up in significant numbers for early voting as well. Still, it’s difficult to determine party affiliation in Virginia, as the Commonwealth does not require individuals to register their party identification. The Virginia Public Access Project currently estimates just shy of 390,000 Democrats have already cast their ballot, compared to 327,000-plus for Republicans.
As for Jones, it appears the damage to his campaign for attorney general will likely be fatal, and for that, he has no one to blame but himself.
