Just when you thought the 2024 presidential race could not get any crazier, it does. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump on Friday, August 23. As shocking as RFK Jr.’s move might seem, it’s just the latest bombshell in a race marked by the criminal conviction and near-assassination of Trump, and a debate meltdown by Joe Biden, which led to his being replaced atop the ticket by Kamala Harris. So perhaps we should no longer be surprised by anything that happens this election year.
However, just the fact that a scion of the Kennedy clan, which dominated and defined the Democratic Party for decades, is endorsing perhaps the most controversial Republican of the modern age is by itself a head-spinner. Beyond that, Kennedy’s deadly attacks on his former party effectively serve as a third-person affirmation of many points Trump has made through the course of the campaign against Biden and now Harris.
RFK Jr. attacked Democrats as "the party of war, censorship, corruption, big pharma, big tech, big ag, and big money." There is no question Kennedy was motivated by the disrespect shown to him by the Democratic Party, which employed the same legal warfare against him that it directed at Trump. But he spent considerable time making clear that his endorsement of the GOP nominee goes beyond retribution. While he disagrees with Trump on multiple issues, he says his support of the GOP nominee is predicated on three areas in particular: free speech, the war in Ukraine, and the "war on our children."
One of the things an independent candidate can do is shine the spotlight on a significant issue that Democrats and Republicans can’t or won’t touch. In this case, Kennedy’s decision to align with Trump will provide a much larger platform to discuss the subject about which he is most passionate: health, and most specifically, the proliferation of processed foods, chemicals, and obesity causing deteriorating health and an alarming rate of chronic disease among children in the US. It will be a welcome discussion.
Whether you approve of none, some, or all of his policy prescriptions, RFK Jr. presents as authentic, serious, and honest. He has particularly appealed to young voters turned off by both major parties. And while many of his supporters may now choose not to vote, polls confirm that those who do are now more likely to support Trump than Harris.
Will RFK Jr.’s Decision Really Change Anything?
Just how much effect might RFK Jr.’s withdrawal, and his endorsement of Trump, have on the race? Supporters of Kennedy and other independent candidates have a more negative view of Harris than Trump, and while a quarter of them would vote for Harris, half would pull the lever for Trump, according to a July poll by the Wall Street Journal, which further projects that the result of the Kennedy decision would mean that a one-point national lead for Harris would become a two-point deficit.
Independent candidates generally start to lose support as Election Day approaches. Many voters conclude that they would be throwing their vote away for a candidate who has no chance to win. Polling shows Kennedy’s support, once as high as about 20%, has reduced to roughly 5%. However, it is likely that most of the defections came from Democrats returning home, and thus, his remaining support is primarily among independents and Republicans disaffected by Trump. In a race currently projected to be very close, just a few thousand votes from former Kennedy supporters in the ten battleground states where RFK Jr. is leaving the ballot could well be decisive.
As for the left's reaction to the RFK bombshell, the headline in the progressive Daily Beast typified the Democrats’ assertion that Kennedy’s decision was little more than an act of revenge: “Spurned RFK Jr. Tries to Spoil Harris’ Moment of Joy by Pulling Out.” Leftists have already accused him of being a stalking horse for Trump, whose purpose all along has been to divide the Democratic Party, and though they will now double down on that claim, it will not wipe away the devastating beatdown of said party delivered by a Kennedy.
Though he first announced in 2023 that he was running as a Democrat like all the other Kennedys, RFK Jr. is, in reality, the embodiment of an independent candidate. When he dared challenge both Joe Biden and the Democrats’ progressive orthodoxy, he was ostracized, ridiculed, and denied secret service protection even as the son and nephew of two assassinated leaders. Democrats even gathered together members of the Kennedy clan in support of Biden, believing such humiliation would kill RFK Jr.’s candidacy. But all it did was drive him into the arms of Trump.
On Friday, Kennedy got his revenge and spoiled the afterglow of the orchestrated joy for Kamala Harris at the Democratic convention. One can’t help but draw an analogy to the campaign of legal warfare – commonly understated as “lawfare” – against Donald Trump, an action Democrats were convinced would finally drive a stake through the heart of their reviled enemy but instead boosted him into the lead. The lesson: Be careful what you wish for because, as Democrats learned with Trump and now with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., payback is hell.
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