Big Losers in the Political Popularity Contest

In the wake of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, much media attention has been paid to his popularity and approval ratings. And why not? Short of an election, polling is the most surefire way to determine just how a politico is performing – or at least how they are perceived to be performing. A deeper look shows our current political leadership in a fascinating nexus of PT Barnum and Oscar Wilde.

The Greatest Showman

Barnum posited that “there’s no such thing as bad publicity,” and it’s hard to argue with that notion when it comes to President Trump. For the last decade, he has dominated the news cycle and shaped – either through his own actions or the negative responses to them – the narrative for just about every media outlet in town.

Indeed, Trump revels in the spotlight and endeavors to turn every negative blow into a home run. Consider the recent loss at the Supreme Court over his imposition of tariffs. Within hours, he held a press conference, redoubled his vision for a tariff-driven economy, and set a brand new 10% global tax. This head spin is indicative of a character who knows for sure he will be the lead story one way or the other and is determined to get out ahead.

After all, if he had not gone on offense, the headlines would have been solely about a rare defeat at the highest court. Instead, the Fourth Estate was forced to contend with the ramifications of his new course of action.

Just how has such political gamesmanship served his popularity ratings?

Let’s Get Churchillian

British wartime Prime Minister Winston Churchill once quipped, “It has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” A notable quote by anyone’s standard. But how does it apply here?

President Trump’s current approval rating, according to Liberty Nation News’ Public Square polling aggregate, is just 42.3%; he is underwater by roughly 14 points. Not a great position for a commander-in-chief hoping to drag his party across the midterm finish line this November. But when taken in context with all the other political leaders, a somewhat different picture emerges. The GOP leadership currently has outsized recognition, purely due to being the party in power. Democrats, on the other side of the scale, are suffering under the weight of zero actual power.

When Barack Obama first won the presidency, Republicans were similarly adrift, with no official (or even unofficial) voice of the party to make its cases. Into that void eventually stepped former Utah Senator Mitt Romney. Fast forward to today and we see three notable national figures dipping toes in the electoral waters: Former VP Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker. Each has made overtures while refusing to commit outright. Early Democratic primary polling shows just how difficult a hill the potential contenders have to climb.

Harris is the leader of the pack with an almost six point advantage, and yet (perhaps not surprisingly so early in the game) she has an average of just 26% support. Newsom takes the second slot on just over 20%, with Pritzker not quite scraping together 5%. As candidates declare themselves, this field will tighten up, but as expected, there is no clear enthusiasm for any one candidate in a party that controls neither the White House nor either chamber of Congress.

A Democrat Deficit

Absent a uniting figure to helm the team, the Democratic Party’s de facto figureheads are Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries – both of New York.

Jeffries has a current approval rating of just 27.8%, lower than Trump’s lowest ever poll (29% – Pew Research Center), which occurred just three days after the riot at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. To give some historical context, over the last 100 years, only two presidents have ever had a poll lower than Mr. Jeffries’. Richard Nixon received a desultory 23% (according to Gallup) during the Watergate debacle, and Harry S. Truman had the lowest on record with 22% in 1952 (also by Gallup), during the heyday of "Korea, Communism and Corruption.”

Senator Schumer is doing even worse than his lower chamber counterpart. He clocks in at 25.8% approval, no doubt exacerbated by his handling of two of the three recent government shutdowns. These are not popular people. They are, however, roughly on par with their party's general approval rating.

The Democratic Party is currently sitting on a aggregate approval of 36% (with 57% viewing it unfavorably). And while the GOP's approval is no great shakes (40% against 54%), having both a higher approval rating and a lower disapproval rating than Democrats could prove a boon come November.

Notably, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has an approval rating of just 19%, but he is not the leader of his party.

Wild About Wilde

What is significant about these poor popularity numbers is that when the approval is taken with the disapproval, Trump’s 55% is actually starker. Jeffries has a disapproval of 36% and Schumer of 47% – so both men are neither well-liked nor greatly despised. And in politics, failing to evoke any kind of reaction is essentially a failure.

The keen observer will note that for both men, their approval and disapproval numbers combined fail to make a nice round 100%. In these gaps are the folks who essentially have neither heard of, nor have an opinion of the politicians. Jeffries is politically ghosted by a whopping 37% of the potential electorate. For Schumer, that figure is 27% - still over a quarter of the voting public. One thing that can be said for Donald Trump is that love him or hate him, everyone has an opinion of him.

As Oscar Wilde famously said, “There’s only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.”

Jeffries and Schumer are not faceless bureaucrats for whom anonymity is the key to career longevity. They are the leading names in their party and the men most responsible for rallying voters ahead of the midterms.

While the ultimate results of the upcoming elections may hinge on a Trump referendum, anonymity and irrelevance are, at the very least, a poor position for the supposed defenders of democracy.