The Candidates’ Market Report
This has been a terrible week for Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden. With all the COVID-19 sound and fury, the Democratic National Convention taking place, and House Democrats determined to make every issue a “Trump issue,” Biden should have been riding high … but that’s not what we see in the polls and betting markets. During the convention, which really should have been a crowning achievement as Dems cast aside old grievances to unite behind their chosen warrior, President Trump managed to hit and maintain a 51% approval rating. As one commentator pointed out, approval numbers are supposed to rise during the convention, but not for the opposition candidate.
On top of this, polling suggested that the gap between Biden and Trump is closing. The swing state odds are narrowing between the two contenders; added to the almost certain “shy Trump voter” numbers, Joe Biden will have his work cut out to win the Electoral College.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 51% ( + 4% )
- Congress – 19% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest.
Florida
- Democrats – 4/7
- Republicans – 5/4
Texas
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Arizona
- Democrats – 4/6
- Republicans – 11/10
Colorado
- Democrats – 1/8
- Republicans – 9/2
Georgia
- Republicans – 4/9
- Democrats – 13/8
Iowa
- Republicans – 2/5
- Democrats – 7/4
Maine
- Democrats – 1/7
- Republicans – 4/1
Michigan
- Democrats – 1/5
- Republicans – 3/1
North Carolina
- Democrats – 4/5
- Republicans – 10/11
Ohio
- Republicans – 4/6
- Democrats – 11/10
Pennsylvania
- Democrats – 3/10
- Republicans – 11/5
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden – 8/11
- Donald Trump – 5/4
- Kamala Harris – 50/1
- Hillary Clinton – 66/1
- Mike Pence – 100/1
- Michelle Obama – 100/1
- Kanye West – 225/1
- Bernie Sanders – 300/1
The gap between betting odds for President Trump and Joe Biden has begun closing. Biden lost a little support and Trump gained some, suggesting that the betting markets are in lockstep with many of the major polling organizations. With around 70 days to go until the election, both candidates will be focusing on rallying voters in the crucial swing states.
This week, the Republican National Convention takes place in North Carolina, which is the only battleground that saw its odds move. The shift, though small, is significant in that NC is one of the “swingiest” swing states. Trump won here in 2016 by 3.67%; in 2012, Mitt Romney carried the all-important 15 Electoral College votes by just 2%.
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
- 251 – 269 = 12/1
- 270 – 275 = 16/1
- 276 – 280 = 16/1
- 281 – 290 = 14/1
- 291 – 300 = 14/1
- 301 – 315 = 10/1
- 316 – 330 = 10/1
- 331 – 350 = 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
