The Candidates’ Market Report
Dropping four points in a single week demonstrates just how big an impact the latest attempt at impeachment has had on President Trump. From a recent high of 52% approval, the president now finds himself back in the shallows of 48%. During the same time in his presidency, Barack Obama also suffered a similar loss, falling from 46% to 42%.
However, every cloud apparently has a silver lining for President Trump as fundraising off the back of the impeachment efforts has seen his coffers swell by more than $15 million in just three days. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, widely considered the architect of the impeachment investigation, has a net favorability rating of – 17.7 whilst the president is sitting comfortably on – 12.6, perhaps giving an indication of where public support lies.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 48% ( – 4% )
- Congress – 17% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 5/6
- Joe Biden – 4/1
- Bernie Sanders – 8/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
- Kamala Harris – 12/1
- Andrew Yang – 12/1
Elizabeth Warren has tightened her grip on the nomination and is now almost a certainty to win with odds of 5/6, which reflects directly into the further loss of support for both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders; both of whom have seen a two-point drop.
Mayor Pete will be pleased to see that for the first time he is higher in the rankings than Kamala Harris. How long before he’s accused of being a white man usurping the position of a woman of color?
It appears that despite President Trump being on the receiving end of an impeachment investigation for his dealings with Ukraine, it is Joe Biden who is suffering the real brute force as his family’s own engagements are coming to light. Many are already speculating whether the choice to launch the investigation was actually designed to target Biden himself as he stubbornly refused to be budged from the top spot in most nationwide polling.
- Donald Trump – 6/5
- Elizabeth Warren – 11/5
- Joe Biden – 13/2
- Bernie Sanders – 14/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 19/1
- Andrew Yang – 20/1
- Kamala Harris – 22/1
- Mike Pence – 50/1
- Cory Booker – 66/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
For the first time in several months, President Trump is no longer an even money bet. He slips slightly to 6/5, but is still the firm favorite, but not as secure as once thought. As the impeachment investigation continues to be dragged out, Democrats are hoping that falling odds and a drop in favorability will be enough to hand the crown to Elizabeth Warren, who has increased her position by half a point. However, if news of impeachment can knock the president back only a fraction of a point, as it becomes clearer that he won’t actually be impeached, we can expect his former position to reassert itself.
The real story this week is how far Elizabeth Warren is leading away from her competitors. Despite having done very little press, the implication that Biden may be involved in the very thing Nancy Pelosi is accusing Trump of doing has really taken its toll.
Interestingly, Mike Pence now has more chance of becoming the next president than Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke.
- Impeachment – 1/2
- Resignation – 1/12
- Trump & Putin to take a Vacation together during Donald’s 1st Presidential Term – 125/1
- Trump to deny the existence of God- 20/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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