The polls, analysis, and betting odds — all right here at your fingertips each week on LibertyNation.com — Where Facts Matter.
The Candidates’ Market Report
Once again, the president is hovering around the 50% mark; yet this last month saw his favorability reach a yearly high. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) had a good week with an approval rating of 42% coming in from a YouGov poll (about four points above her average polling), but this may be impacted in next week’s polls as she and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) begin to draw battle lines. It’s not just Ocasio-Cortez’s popularity that will weigh against the Speaker of the House, but also her inability to control the more wayward factions emerging.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 50% ( + 1% )
- Congress – 18% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Kamala Harris – 2/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 7/2
- Joe Biden – 5/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 6/1
- Bernie Sanders – 7/1
- Andrew Yang – 11/1
Major changes this week as Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) takes the number one spot at 2/1. The polling still has Joe Biden as the top candidate, but cash money bettors are singing a different tune. Biden himself has slipped to third on 5/1, which is only a half point drop for him, yet the surges of Sens. Harris and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) may spell an end to his campaign.
Warren gains a point and a half, putting her in second position — still a long way off the top spot, but perhaps enough to put her in the running for the VP ticket.
As the frontrunner field pulls away, outsider candidates start dropping off. Both South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) have lost a point each, making the divide a harder bridge to cross. Eric Swalwell has officially dropped out, perhaps a reflection of his 100/1 odds of winning the nomination.
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – Even
- Kamala Harris – 4/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 13/2
- Joe Biden – 9/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
- Bernie Sanders – 11/1
- Andrew Yang – 18/1
- Cory Booker – 30/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 35/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 40/1
President Trump is still sitting pretty on Even money. Harris has jumped to 4/1, a position previously occupied by former frontrunner Joe Biden, who is now on the outs as a 9/1 longshot. Beto O’Rourke continues to slide down the scale; will he be the next candidate to drop out?
The first round debates cast Kamala Harris as the clear winner, according to the press, which may have helped her odds increase. If Joe Biden can weather the storms of segregationist association, being the leader in most polls, he may still pull it back.
Right now, it looks as though we’ll be seeing a Biden/Haris ticket going forward in 2020.
Donald Trump:
- Impeachment – 1/4
- Resignation – 6/1
- New York Stock Exchange to fully suspend Trading following Trump Impeachment Confirmation – 11/1
- Trump o outlaw the theory of evolution – 50/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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