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The Political Horse Race – July 16

All the numbers you need to know - polls and odds.

The polls, analysis, and betting odds — all right here at your fingertips each week on LibertyNation.com — Where Facts Matter.

The Candidates’ Market Report

The president’s approval ratings have been taking a hit this week and show few signs of bouncing back soon. Not to be outdone, it appears that all major players are slumping. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) is sitting on 9% while the arguably more popular Rep. Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is struggling to get above 22%.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

  • Donald Trump – 46% ( – 2% )
  • Congress – 18% ( no change  )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

  • Kamala Harris – 2/1
  • Elizabeth Warren – 7/2
  • Joe Biden – 5/1
  • Pete Buttigieg – 6/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 7/1
  • Andrew Yang – 11/1

No major changes this week as the main Democrat contenders have been sidelined in the media by internal spats between Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Ocasio-Cortez. This may, in fact, help solidify voters in their choice of candidate as in such a fractious election period, staying out of the limelight can be a benefit.

The Justice Democrat team appears to be siding with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), which might turn out to be the final nail in his presidential hopes. As their own popularity slumps, being considered a “team” may alienate more moderate Democrat voters and push them towards either Joe Biden or Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA).

Presidential Election:

  • Donald Trump – Even
  • Kamala Harris – 4/1
  • Elizabeth Warren – 13/2
  • Joe Biden – 9/1
  • Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 11/1
  • Andrew Yang – 18/1
  • Cory Booker – 30/1
  • Amy Klobuchar – 35/1
  • Beto O’Rourke – 40/1

President Trump is maintaining his even money position, and it seems likely that there will be little or no change for Democrat hopefuls until a final candidate is decided upon. At present, Democrat voters are divided; when a candidate is anointed, they may end up coalescing around a single politician.

The final two contenders will end up representing two very different wings of the party. If they can’t come together, their odds of challenging the incumbent will stay low.

Donald Trump:

  • Impeachment – 1/4
  • Resignation – 6/1
  • Next British Prime Minister:
    • Boris Johnson – 1/33
    • Jeremy Hunt – 14/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.


To read more from Mark Angelides, visit our author page. At Liberty Nation, we love to hear from our readers. Comment and join the conversation!

Read More From Mark Angelides

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