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A recent CNN poll continues a methodology that is sure to make voters mistrust the world of sampling voters in the next election even more than they did in the last. This new poll claims to demonstrate that President Trump is unlikely to be re-elected in 2020. The research carried out by SSRS on behalf of the Clinton News Network has some shocking headlines that may make Trump fans fearful of our last best hope, but a deeper dive into the crosstabs and comparisons show some surprising things.
Inevitably, the headline pushed by CNN declares Donald Trump to be set for a loss, reporting, “More than half of Americans think Trump will lose in 2020.” This has been picked up by other news outlets and is presently trending high as one of the top stories for the week. But the reality is a very different kettle of fish.
The Raw Data
Based on the headlining question, “As you may have heard, Donald Trump has decided to run for re-election. Please just give me your best guess, do you think he will win the presidential election in 2020, or do you think he will lose?” President Trump scored a massive 54% thinking that he would likely lose. Worrying figures? Perhaps not.
For comparison, the same question asked of former President Barack Obama at the same point in his first term in 2010 shows that he also scored a 54% likely negative outcome. Bill Clinton, at the same time in his presidency, polled an enormous 65% likely loss.
In terms of those thinking Trump might win again, 40% seemed confident compared with 44% for Obama, which is right on the cusp of a margin for error.
As with the majority of respectable polling, the respondent’s answers are weighted to match the core demographics of the nation, but again, this fails to produce a realistic picture. The sampling reflects race, age, registered voter balances, income brackets and more but fails to consider likelihood to vote; which is one of the key indicators of accurate polling.
The fact is that the older a person gets, the more likely they are to do their civic duty and hit the polling station on election day. There is presently much media hullabaloo about how active young folk are becoming in politics (probably in the hopes of creating a false narrative), but this rarely translates into votes.
A Case in Point
During and after the British Brexit vote, much media noise was made of results among those under the age of 24 voting largely to remain in the EU. It was touted as a sea change figure that predicted the rising tide of a Globalist youth. It was even suggested that the pro-EU voters merely had to wait until the elderly voters were “in their graves” to turn it all back. The problem was that it was pretty much false.
71% of those aged 18 to 24 voted to remain in the EU, which would certainly support the idea that as time goes by, the nation will become more pro-EU. But looking at how many in this age range actually bothered to vote tells an entirely different story. The figures show that only around 36% of this group went to the polls… and this is only of those who even registered to vote.
The Real Picture
Pollsters have a vested interest in obfuscating the numbers. They are paid for or supported by the entity that requests the polling. If they don’t provide the answers or “indications” that the buyer desires, plenty of other companies will be happy to comply.
If we were to look purely at what the numbers say in direct relation to the real-world results, it would be fairer to say that “Majority of Americans think Trump will Lose in 2020, Landslide Victory Expected.”