The Candidates’ Market Report
This last week has given Trump quite a boost with a swing toward an Electoral College victory. His job approval numbers have reached 52%, just one point below his all-time high, and although almost all major polling still gives Joe Biden the lead, the battleground states are where the election will be won.
On most major issues, polling shows that Biden and Trump are neck and neck in terms of voter trust. When it comes to job creation and the economy, it seems Trump is slightly more favored, although on public safety Biden has the edge. The question remains which of these two driving factors will convince the voters when they step into the booth.
Rasmussen’s White House Watch shows Biden with a four-point lead this week, an increase on last week. Although, President Trump’s support among black voters appears to be remaining steady and could prove decisive on November 3.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 52% ( + 6% )
- Congress – 18% ( – 2% )
Senate Map:
When it comes to presidential elections, the shape of the next Senate is often overlooked. Here’s a round-up of what the polls are saying right now:
- Republicans: 46
- Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 45
- Toss Up: 9
The states that are a toss-up include Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
Of these, the latest polling indicates that five will go to Republicans and four to Democrats.
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest.
Florida
- Democrats – 4/5
- Republicans – 10/11
Texas
- Republicans – 1/4
- Democrats – 5/2
Arizona
- Democrats – 8/11
- Republicans – Even
Colorado
- Democrats – 1/8
- Republicans – 9/2
Georgia
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Iowa
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Maine
- Democrats – 2/9
- Republicans – 4/1
Michigan
- Democrats – 4/11
- Republicans – 15/8
North Carolina
- Republicans – 4/5
- Democrats – 10/11
Ohio
- Republicans – 1/2
- Democrats – 13/8
Pennsylvania
- Democrats – 8/15
- Republicans – 11/8
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden – 8/11
- Donald Trump – 6/5
- Kamala Harris – 66/1
- Hillary Clinton – 150/1
- Mike Pence – 175/1
- Michelle Obama – 250/1
- Kanye West – 500/1
- Bernie Sanders – no odds under 500/1
For the last several months, President Trump’s most favorable odds regarding the Electoral College indicated that he would win between 251 and 269 votes, but with positive approval ratings and a turning of the tides in a number of key swing states, all this has changed. According to the betting markets, Trump is equally as likely (five to one) to win 270 to 299 EC votes as he is to win 300 to 329. This is a major turnaround for the incumbent and could point to a decisive victory that pushes beyond the almost certain media spin.
In terms of winning, the two candidates are a hair’s breadth apart. The all-important battleground states are showing a definite swing back toward Trump.
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
- 270 – 299 = 5/1
- 300 – 329 = 5/1
- 180 – 209 = 11/2
- 210 – 239 = 11/2
- 330 – 359 = 6/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
