The Candidates’ Market Report
National polling, state polling, and betting odds all give President Donald Trump the advantage in both Florida and Texas. These two states come with a massive combined total of 67 Electoral College votes and a brand new headache for the Joe Biden campaign team. In 2016, Trump won 304 EC votes compared to Clinton’s 227, for any path to victory for Biden, he needs to start flipping states. Sadly for him, Trump’s support remains solid in some of the key swingers.
According to the betting markets, Ohio may also be tilting towards Trump. Polling in the state gives Biden an average lead of over three percent, but a deeper dive into the numbers shows something more interesting. Small sample size polls tend not to be reflective, and in the polling community are considered of less worth than those with larger respondent pools. If we take the polls from the last 30 days and remove any with a sample size of under 1,000, then President Trump actually comes away with a four-point lead.
What this means for the hopeful Biden is that his path to victory is narrowing. If he wants to claim the White House, he will need to win every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and flip four of the larger populous states. With Florida and Texas looking beyond his reach, and Ohio also an extremely long shot, Biden needs to go all-in on the remaining five possible swing states. But could this approach cost him in other areas?
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 47% ( + 1% )
- Congress – 15% ( – 3% )
Senate Map:
When it comes to presidential elections, the shape of the next Senate is often overlooked. Here’s a round-up of what the polls are saying right now:
- Republicans: 46
- Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 46
- Toss Up: 8
The states that are a toss-up include Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
Of these, the latest polling indicates that Republicans will win five and Democrats will win three, giving a 51/49 split in favor of the GOP.
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest.
Florida
- Republicans – 4/5
- Democrats – 10/11
Texas
- Republicans – 1/4
- Democrats – 5/2
Arizona
- Democrats – 4/7
- Republicans – 11/8
Colorado
- Democrats – 1/10
- Republicans – 5/1
Georgia
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Iowa
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Maine
- Democrats – 1/7
- Republicans – 4/1
Michigan
- Democrats – 2/7
- Republicans – 11/4
North Carolina
- Republicans – 4/5
- Democrats – 10/11
Ohio
- Republicans – 4/7
- Democrats – 5/4
Pennsylvania
- Democrats – 8/15
- Republicans – 11/8
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden – 8/11
- Donald Trump – 6/5
- Kamala Harris – 80/1
- Hillary Clinton – 250/1
- Mike Pence – 250/1
- Michelle Obama – 300/1
- Kanye West – 500/1
- Bernie Sanders – no odds under 500/1
If it seems like you’re living in Bill Murray’s Groundhog Day, you’re not alone. It appears that we are all doomed to repeat the same things every four years, but this year seems more than shockingly similar. We see pollsters predicting with 90% certainty that Biden (Clinton) is going to win. We see media outlets suggesting that Trump’s scandals/taxes/criminality will bring him down. And we see media pundits trying to convince the world that a Trump victory would mean the destruction of the USA.
The only difference is that this time, those who represent the polls are adding a proviso. Not that they could be as wildly wrong as they were in 2016, but that Biden’s chances are even greater than Hillary’s were because his polling average is higher. In the gambling world, we call this “doubling down.” Doubling down is rarely a smart play, and usually involves compulsive gamblers throwing good money after bad in an attempt to claw back their losses. Perhaps it’s exactly the same in the polling world?
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
- 270 – 299 = 5/1
- 180-269 = 5/1
- 300 – 329 = 6/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
