The Candidates’ Market Report
The president has maintained his 46% job approval rating despite a steady barrage of negative media. Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley predicted the impeachment inquiry would bury Trump in the election, yet polling seems to be swinging away from Democrat support. Recent Quinnipiac polling showed that 45% of voters favored impeachment, but when compared to the 48% who don’t, it looks like this could be the defining and dividing line in 2020.
This week was not so much marked by Donald Trump’s performance, but rather by the internecine warfare taking place in the Democratic Party. As electioneering time runs short, candidates need to distinguish themselves from a fairly mundane cast of characters. We’ve seen sly jibes, defections to other campaigns, or media bloodfests just about every day … but very little of it instigated by Republicans. Make no mistake, Democrats are at war with themselves every bit as much as they are with President Trump.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 46% ( no change )
- Congress – 23% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 11/4
- Joe Biden – 3/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 7/2
- Bernie Sanders – 11/2
- Michael Bloomberg – 10/1
- Hillary Clinton – 16/1
- Andrew Yang – 20/1
- Michelle Obama – 33/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 35/1
Very little movement in the race for the nomination this week, which tells us one fact very clearly: Nobody is making an impression. None of the top positions have changed. As for the outsiders, only Amy Klobuchar has had any sunshine, reaching the giddy heights of 33 to one. Michelle Obama has also graced our leaderboard in eighth place.
When these betting odds are taken in conjunction with polling results in key states, it’s difficult to see how this doesn’t come down to a final race between Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. The other contenders may provide some distracting headlines and mid-show entertainment, but in reality, this competition is between two visions of the party, and those visions are epitomized by the frontrunners.
In the minds of millions must be the question of whether these two candidates can bring the younger generation with them for the ride. Will Bernie Sanders supporters be happy with not having a candidate who represents their views two elections in a row? Will they turn out to vote?
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 13/10
- Joe Biden – 6/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 7/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 15/2
- Bernie Sanders – 9/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 14/1
- Andrew Yang – 25/1
- Hillary Clinton – 33/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Kamala Harris – 45/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 50/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
- Mitt Romney – 90/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 100/1
Joe Biden maintains his lead among Democrats for the second week in a row ahead of Elizabeth Warren, signifying that last week’s results were not just a blip. President Trump is still in the number one spot and based upon the odds of his competitors, looks likely to stay there. The real question is who is going to face him in the actual election.
We need to ask whether the number two spot has gone to Biden because of something positive he himself has done or is due to negativity surrounding the Warren campaign. Seeing as Uncle Joe hasn’t actually gained any movement (he is still on six to one), it seems far more likely that his success is due to campaign immolation on behalf of Warren. Those lies about her heritage just aren’t going away.
Donald Trump:
- Impeachment – 1/5
- Resignation – 5/1
- Mexico to directly fund construction of a border wall with the US – 12/1
- Trump to outlaw the theory of evolution – 50/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
