Editor’s Note: With so much heat rather than light in the media world today, Liberty Nation presents the following series on the crucial midterm elections that will be taking place. These elections will likely determine the course of the Trump presidency and as such should be looked at with in-depth analysis. Thus, each week LN author Graham Noble will be giving our readers a state-by-state look at the upcoming elections. This week, he covers House and Senate Races in North Carolina, North Dakota and Ohio.
Democrats and Republicans have been fighting a protracted war for control of North Carolina but it remains, so far, a red state, despite an influx of Democrat voters from the northeast. From 1876 to 1964, the state voted for a Republican presidential candidate only once. Since 1968, a Democrat has carried North Carolina only twice; the last time being when voters chose former President Barack Obama, by a narrow margin, in 2008. In 2016, President Donald Trump won the state by a margin of 49.8% to 46.2%.
North Dakota hasn’t chosen a Democrat in a general election since 1964. In the five most recent presidential contests, the Republican candidate has won by a significant margin but Trump’s victory in the state was the largest: He took 63% of the North Dakota vote, while Hillary Clinton received just 27.2%.
Ohio is one of a handful of states always considered crucial in the battle for the White House. Since 1976, Ohio has voted Democrat five times and Republican six times. Obama took the state in 2008 and 2012 but Trump scored a big victory in 2016, carrying Ohio with 51.7% of the vote to Clinton’s 43.6%.
North Carolina
Thom Tillis
Republican Senators Thom Tillis and Richard Burr, representing North Carolina, will run for re-election in 2020 and 2022, respectively. The state has 13 congressional districts and all but three are represented by Republicans. Still hoping for a huge backlash against Trump to hand them control of the House of Representatives, Democrats know that North Carolina is another make-or-break battleground for them. This is no easy task, however; the districts being targeted by Democrats voted for Trump by double digits or very close to it. North Carolina’s economy is strong and the state is home to a couple of the most important military bases in the country, including Camp Lejeune and Fort Bragg.
The northern part of the state has become a Democratic stronghold, based upon support from the larger urban population centers of Raliegh-Durham, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro. Republican-held districts in the north, such as the 2nd and 13th, are considered vulnerable. The opposition party, however, will have to rely on poor voter turnout among Republicans or the far less likely prospect of massive disappointment in the performance of the Trump economy to flip seats in this state.
North Dakota
Heidi Heitkamp
Democrat Heidi Heitkamp and Republican John Hoeven represent North Dakota in the U.S. Senate. Hoeven faces re-election in 2022 but Heitkamp is already fighting to hold onto her seat in this year’s midterms. Democrats have held this Senate seat for decades but Heitkamp may be unable to continue that trend. She was the first Democrat to signal her support for Mike Pompeo, Trump’s recent Secretary of State nominee. In doing so, she won no popularity contests on her own side of the aisle. Despite a not inconsiderable amount of money being poured into North Dakota to retain her seat for the Democrats, Heitkamp’s approval rating is in freefall. Her challenger is Kevin Cramer who currently represents the state’s at-large congressional district.
Nonpartisan election analysts rate this seat a toss-up and the battle for it is considered one of the toughest of this year’s Senate races.
Ohio
Sherrod Brown
Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio is not very well-known among those who do not closely follow party politics. In fact, he is considered something of a rising star within the Democratic Party and is favored, by many, as a future presidential candidate. Brown will be defending his seat in November and is likely – though not certain – to remain in the Senate. His fellow Ohio Senator, Republican Robert Portman, will run for re-election in 2022.
Ohio’s 16 congressional districts will be the subject of much attention this year. The state itself is, politically, a reflection of the entire country and, perhaps more than any other state, Ohio will present a pretty good picture of where the nation is heading, come November. Ohio’s 12th district seat is vacant after Republican Patrick Tiberi resigned in January to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. A special election to fill the seat will be held in August. It is a heavily Republican district is likely to remain in the hands of the majority.
Of the state’s other 15 districts, 11 are represented by Republicans and four by Democrats. Like North Carolina, Ohio is being seen by many analysts as a state in which most Republican districts will flip. In reality, the Democrats have lost a lot of ground to Republicans in midterm opinion polling. Ohioans may be less likely to vote against a strengthening economy than pundits are predicting they will. Democrats pinning their hopes on multiple midterm wins in Ohio are counting on a massive rejection of the Trump agenda.
Midterm Election Watch predicts Republicans will take Heitkamp’s Senate Seat in North Dakota. In North Carolina, the Democrats will see a net gain of one House seat and they will pick up one seat in Ohio.
Join us next week as our series focuses on House and Senate Races in Oklahoma and Oregon.
