Editor’s Note: With so much heat rather than light in the media world today, Liberty Nation presents the following series on the crucial midterm elections that will be taking place. These elections will likely determine the course of the Trump presidency and as such should be looked at with in-depth analysis. Thus, each week LN author Graham Noble will be giving our readers a state-by-state look at the upcoming elections. This week, he covers House and Senate Races in Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Jersey.
When it comes to choosing a president, Nevada is a true swing state. From 1968 to 1988, the state went Republican. Since then, Nevadans voted twice for Bill Clinton, twice for George W. Bush and twice for Barack Obama. In 2016, the state went to Hillary Clinton by a margin of 47.9% to 45.5%. The state of New Hampshire has voted Democrat since 1992 with one exception: George W. Bush carried the state in 2000 by less than two percentage points. In 2016, Hillary won New Hampshire by a margin of less than 1%. New Jersey has been solidly blue since 1992 and Hillary Clinton carried the state in 2016 by 55% to 41%.
Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto represent Nevada in the United States Senate. Cortez Masto’s current term ends in January 2023 and Heller will be running for re-election in this year’s midterm elections. Heller dodged a primary challenge from Danny Tarkanian when President Donald Trump urged the latter to run for a seat in the House of Representatives instead. Potentially facing a strong challenge from Democratic Representative Jacky Rosen, Heller is one of the most vulnerable Republican Senators running this year. It should be noted, here, that although Rosen is considered by many to be the Democratic front-runner, primary voting takes place in June, so Heller’s challenger is yet to be decided.
Heller is unique among Republican Senator facing re-election this year in that his state voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Most analysts consider his race a toss-up.
Nevada has four congressional districts and they are represented by three Democrats and one Republican. Jacky Rosen, who represents the 3rd district, is running for the Senate and another Democrat, Ruben Kihuen, will be giving up his 4th district seat after one term, following sexual harassment allegations. Both seats are in the crosshairs, this November. Democrats publicly express confidence in their ability to defend these two open seats. Currently 25 seats short of the 218 needed to control the House, Democrats can little afford to lose either seat.
Neither of New Hampshire’s two Democratic Senators face re-election this year. Jeanne Shaheen’s current term ends in January 2021 and Margaret Hassan’s ends in January 2023. New Hampshire has two congressional districts, represented by Democrats Carol Shea-Porter and Ann Kuster. Shea-Porter announced last year that she would not seek re-election, citing a desire to spend more time with her family. Navy veteran Eddie Edwards is one of two Republicans hoping to replace her; Andy Sanborn is the other. As many as eight Democrats are also vying for the seat. In 2016, New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district voted for Trump by a margin of 1.6% in a state where Hillary Clinton scored a razor-thin victory.
Both of New Jersey’s Democratic Senators are well-known figures. Cory Booker has developed something of a reputation for his grandstanding at recent Senatorial hearings and is considered a possible future presidential candidate. A radical progressive and something of a bully, Booker will face re-election in 2020. Robert Menendez has managed to survive despite recent scandals, including a corruption charge. Nevertheless, he will almost certainly win his re-election bid in November.
New Jersey’s 12 congressional districts are represented by seven Democrats and five Republicans. Two incumbents are not seeking re-election in November. Republican Frank LoBiondo, who has served in the House since 1995, leaves his 2nd district seat vulnerable to a Democratic flip, although the district voted for Trump in 2016. Fellow Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen, who has also served 12 terms in the House, is leaving his 11th district seat. At least three other New Jersey seats are considered competitive and this state is one of the keys to control of the House in November.
Most of these battleground districts were won by Trump in 2016 but by small margins. It should be noted, of course, that votes for a presidential candidate are not always an indicator of how the parties will fare in congressional elections. Both parties are fielding a host of contenders in New Jersey. The primary will be held on June 5th.
Midterm Election Watch predicts the Democrats will pick up Dean Heller’s Senate seat in Nevada and will flip two House seats in New Jersey. Republicans will flip Kihuen’s House seat in Nevada and Shea-Porter’s House seat in New Hampshire.
Join us next week as our series focuses on House and Senate Races in New York and New Mexico.