[Editor’s note: Developments in the 2020 presidential election came at a fast past. As such – and for the sake of understanding the most recent facts and possible outcomes – it is always worth noting the publication date of election-related articles. The following article was written more than a week prior to the November 6 election and was published on October 22, 2020.]
In a recent interview with National Review, pollster Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group told how he got it right in 2016. “We built a better mousetrap,” asserted Cahaly. Less than two weeks from the 2020 election, the unconventional political guru says Trump will win re-election. The key to victory in the United States is the electoral map – not the popular vote – and this is where the Democrats and Joe Biden will run into another mousetrap. It will not be one that Cahaly built, but one constructed by Donald Trump.
A self-identified Lee Atwater acolyte, Cahaly upended establishment pollsters in the last presidential election cycle when he nailed it by calling for a 306 to 232 win for Trump in the Electoral College. The official record for 2016 was 304 to 227, keeping in mind there were seven faithless electors. Running several likely scenarios through an interactive map, it’s easy to see why the president has the advantage despite widespread polls that say otherwise.
It’s All About the States
To be clear, national polls – especially ones that sample fewer than 1,000 voters – are best used in your powder room. This especially goes for the ones that sample registered voters rather than likely voters. Websites like 538.com and RealClearPolitics take these polls, average them out, and shazam – Biden comes up a winner like the genie in a bottle. However, there’s an adage that perfectly explains this scenario: “garbage in, garbage out.”
So, the best way to examine this presidential contest is to look at statewide polls. Here again, we run into the issue of rubbish. Most of these surveys are sampling 400 or 500 people, and then they “weight” them using exit polling. You remember exit polls; those are the same ones that were predicting a Hillary Clinton landslide a few hours into election day four years ago.
Suffice it to say that when one seeks to determine where the electorate stands, only two vital questions need be consulted:
- Who is best on the economy?
- Are you better off than four years ago?
Just over half of the Americans polled (55%-56%) say they are better off now than when Barack Obama was president. This is shocking when you think about COVID-19 and the civil unrest in this most bizarre of years. In terms of who would be best for the economy, the answer has been Trump, Trump, Trump.
Electoral Map 1
All this leads to our electoral map. Considering the two questions above, it is difficult to see how Mr. Trump loses any state he won in 2016. Here we put Pennsylvania in the toss-up column, not because we think he won’t win the Keystone State, but because there is a high likelihood that the commonwealth could be stolen from Trump. Reason one is the historic voter fraud in and around Philadelphia, a city under the thumb of the Democratic union cartel. Reason two is the recent ruling by the State Supreme Court, allowing the state to count mail-in ballots up to three days after the election. This change is an invitation for election fraud to take place in Pennsylvania. If you don’t believe this, consult the 1960 presidential match-up between John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon – specifically take a look at Illinois.
There are two other states we are calling toss-ups, one of which could easily go into the Trump column. They are Iowa and New Hampshire. While it seems Iowa is a good bet for Trump, let’s not count it for the sake of argument. Same with New Hampshire, which some pollsters believe is in play.
This map puts Trump on the road to victory, 281 electors to Biden’s 227.
Electoral Map 2
If we put Pennsylvania and Iowa into the Trump column – where they likely belong – you get this map, which shows 307 Trump electors to 227 for Biden.
The political illuminati can rail all they want about the president losing states he won last time. How that happens with a “better off” electorate who sees Trump as the economic leader defies reason. In 2016, this writer predicted a Trump victory when the political and polling classes called for a Clinton win. That forecast pinned Trump’s victory on Trump taking Pennsylvania, which he did. This time, we do not even have to put this electorate-rich state in the president’s column for him to once again take the brass ring.
Read more from Leesa K. Donner.