Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III has released the unclassified version of the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS), a document that comprises a host of information, including reviews on nuclear posture and missile defense. The text, released Oct. 27, is more detailed than previous Biden administration defense strategies and weapons reviews, though the underlying national policy guidance is the 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS). The 2022 NDS is no more evocative than the NSS, but having all of the strategic national security policy reviews in a single volume provides an opportunity to quickly compare the thinking in each document.
"The key theme of the NDS is the need to sustain and strengthen US deterrence with the People's Republic of China [PRC] as our pacing challenge," Secretary Austin said, opening a Pentagon press conference announcing the release of the 2022 report. So, despite the recent menacing remarks by the PRC's President Xi Jinping, China is not a threat but remains a pacing challenge.
Continually referring to China as less than the single greatest economic and military threat now and into the foreseeable future is deceiving the American public. A "pacing challenge" is encountered when one is out jogging with a friend, and the friend, the better jogger, is setting the pace, and keeping up is a challenge. The PRC, by any standard, is demonstrably more menacing.
Defense Strategy Identifies Gray Zone Warfare as a Threat
Nonetheless, there are encouraging and valuable parts of the 2022 NDS. Acknowledging the existential risk the US faces from attacks on American citizens and their institutions by clearly hostile operations short of actual kinetic warfare is an essential addition. The report states:
"Competitors now commonly seek adverse changes in the status quo using gray zone methods – coercive approaches that may fall below perceived thresholds for US military action and across areas of responsibility of different parts of the US Government. The PRC employs state-controlled forces, cyber and space operations, and economic coercion against the United States and its Allies and partners."
Singling out not only the PRC but also Russia as employing the same operations to control what US citizens think is important. Attacking critical infrastructure and crucial institutions, like local governments, essential services, utilities, and police and fire departments is menacing. Recognizing the threat represented by gray zone warfare or "hybrid warfare," as it is also known, is an informative section of the document.
Nuclear Posture and Missile Defense
New to this year's NDS is the inclusion of the 2022 NPR (Nuclear Posture Review) and MDR (Missile Defense Review). The document "describes United States nuclear strategy, policy, posture, and forces" and "reaffirms a continuing commitment to a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent and strong and credible extended deterrence." The narrative clearly explains the need for a robust and effective nuclear deterrent. Again, the Russian Federation is called out for its bad behavior with its invasion and bombing and missile attacks on innocent Ukrainians. Furthermore, the Nuclear Posture Review calls the Kremlin's threats of using nuclear weapons in the conflict "irresponsible saber-rattling." This geopolitical acting out with "statements and actions raise the risk of deliberate or unintended escalation," the posture review states. These policy pronouncements come as close to a line-in-the-sand position as the Biden administration gets.
At the same time, the Department of Defense nuclear strategy includes retiring the B83-1, America's most powerful, operational variable yield atomic gravity bomb, as well as canceling the nuclear-armed Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM-N) program. Retiring the B83-1 received significant pushback from members of Congress, and canceling SLCM-N, many believe, weakens the Nuclear Triad options. Congress will have input on these policy decisions.
The 2022 MDR is the first since former President Trump's administration published a missile defense policy paper in 2019. The nation's missile defense "encompasses the range of activities to counter the development, acquisition, proliferation, potential and actual use of adversary offensive missiles" against the US and its allies. The Pentagon intends to modernize and expand the capability of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System as part of the overall "comprehensive missile defeat approach" to protect the homeland. Placing the missile defense umbrella around US allies and partners, the DOD will continue working closely on integrated air and missile defense, maintaining security relationships and capability.
Once the reader moves beyond the rehash of the recently released 2022 NSS, there are issues of importance. In some cases, the fact that the Biden administration raised them in these documents is helpful for the American public to know. On the other hand, where the 2022 National Defense Strategy and two capability policy reviews fail is symbolic of the Biden administration's timidity generally regarding US national security and geopolitical prominence. Pacing challenges and adversaries' threats are two very different competitive concepts. Unfortunately, the White House embraces the former and not the latter.
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