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Crunching the Numbers on Hispanic Voters

by | Sep 28, 2018 | Articles, Politics

According to the mainstream narrative, President Donald Trump is a racist who hates Latinos – and the feeling is mutual. But, if you are a loyal consumer of the legacy media, you have been misinformed. A closer look at the data shows that the situation is far more nuanced.

The Hart Research Associates recently conducted an in-depth poll targeting Hispanic voters on various issues. The results are illuminating. First, let’s start with the obvious, what you have already heard tirelessly repeated in the media: Most of them are negative to restricting illegal immigration or enacting any form of deportation. Two-thirds disapprove of the president.

However, when asked how much change they would like to see in the direction that Trump is moving the country, a whopping 61% replied “a great deal” or “quite a bit,” whereas only 22% want “not that much” or “no change.” Trump must be doing something that most Hispanic voters like, even if they don’t care much for the man who is doing it. They have low confidence in his ability to lead the country.

While his approval ratings are still low, they are improving. In October 2016, 80% of Latino responders were “somewhat negative” or “very negative” to Trump. Today, only 62% say the same.

The trend is also that they are becoming more negative to immigration, and a plurality wants to keep ICE. You didn’t expect that, did you?

Analyzing the Data

Extracting meaning from this statistic may be akin to mind reading. With the caveat that anyone can read anything into it, let us try to give it a fair and objective assessment, regardless of ideology. What are Hispanics indirectly saying through their answers to these questions?

Their ambiguity towards immigration seems to reflect a fear that a restriction of immigration and a wall on the border with Mexico is going to hurt the ability of someone they care about to come to or stay in America. At the same time, this demographic also has eyes and ears, and sees the problems illegal aliens bring across the border, such as crime, pollution, and drugs.

The fact that they like much of what Trump is doing but are deeply distrustful of the man himself suggests that they are partly buying into the media narrative that he is a racist. They may feel they cannot vote or approve of a man who they think will deport them or their loved ones.

An Opportunity?

Trump is likely not going to attract Hispanic voters in droves until his actions erode the image painted of him as a xenophobe. The poll does, however, show that there may be an opportunity to sway these voters in a way that is consistent with the message on immigration he sold to his voters in 2016.

He could do something analogous to what he did in his first days in office. At that time, he signed an executive order instructing that for every new regulation created, two must be removed. He could similarly propose a policy linking the removal of illegal aliens with the issuing of a special kind of legal work visa. By linking them, he would show that he is trying to clean up a bureaucratic mess rather than to target a certain demographic.

Such a link could be an alternative to the dreaded amnesty. Trump could say that from a certain date, any illegal alien who is discovered will be deported. All illegals are, however, given the opportunity to register for a certain kind of work visa: If they have no criminal record, they can stay indefinitely, but since they came illegally, they will never be eligible for citizenship, nor any of their children.

They would not get any food stamps or other social security benefits because that unfairly subsidizes a stagnation of wages of American citizens. However, with a legal status, they would enjoy greater protection under the law.

Most Americans would probably see such a policy as fair-minded. It’s not an amnesty, and it protects American citizens. At the same time, it does not punish hardworking or otherwise honest aliens.

Leave a comment below to give your opinion about this proposed solution.

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