The Candidates’ Market Report
In the wake of several mass shootings during recent weeks, and Democrat contenders making political capital out of them, in any normal election cycle Donald Trump would be taking a beating… but not this time. Despite being pilloried by politicos and the media, President Trump has maintained his 47-50% approval rating without much fuss or drama. In fact, he’s 3 points ahead of where Barack Obama was at the same time of his presidency. The Teflon Don, indeed.
There are now two candidates running against President Trump for the Republican Primary nomination, Joe Walsh and Bill Weld. However, Rasmussen Reports show that of Republican voters, 92% are sure that Trump will be on the final ballot paper, just 5% disagree and feel that it is “not likely” that Trump will be on the ticket.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 47% ( – 1% )
- Congress – 19% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 15/8
- Joe Biden – 11/4
- Bernie Sanders – 6/1
- Kamala Harris – 7/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 13/2
- Andrew Yang – 16/1
Elizabeth Warren continues to ratchet up her lead in the betting odds to be the next Democratic Party presidential candidate. This is the third week running that she has topped the cash money polls, spelling more doom and gloom for an already embattled Biden campaign. Joe Biden has slipped a quarter of a point and Bernie Sanders has dropped a whole point and a half.
Kamala Harris lost 2%, putting her firmly as an outsider in the betting odds. But the worst news is for Pete Buttigieg who, despite a promising early run, lost seven and a half points making him the week’s biggest loser.
Even though the money bettors are opting for a Warren victory, the polls show a very different story: Biden is still topping just about every single poll with double-digit margins. In a world where intersectional politics didn’t take priority of place over what people actually want, we would be looking at a Biden/Warren ticket for 2020. As it is, it’s more likely to be a Biden/Harris, or even a Warren/Harris campaign.
- Donald Trump – EVS
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/2
- Joe Biden – 6/1
- Bernie Sanders – 11/1
- Kamala Harris – 16/1
- Andrew Yang – 25/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 33/1
- Cory Booker – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 100/1
This week was a bloodbath for the outside contenders. While the top spots (Trump, Warren, Biden) didn’t change much, those in a more outlier position suffered the greatest possible blow to their respective candidacies: They sank like a rock. Kamala Harris and Andrew Yang both lost a full 7 points and should consider themselves lucky it was only that much.
Former Golden Boy Pete Buttigieg dropped by a magnitude of three – that’s 22 points! Cory Booker, having failed to capitalize on his Faux Spartacus persona lost 36 points. And Beto O’Rourke, despite being front and center in the media after the recent mass-shootings, lost an incredible 60 points! He now has roughly the same chance of becoming president as Sarah Palin does of winning the Republican nomination in 2020.
- Impeachment – 1/4
- Resignation – 1/12
- Trump to deport Michael Moore – 80/1
- Trump to convert to Scientology – 25/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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